Invited lecture 'Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking in to account mortality delay and smoking', presented at the Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections, Geneva (Switzerland), 18-20 April 2016. Lecture for scientists and professionals.
F. Janssen (University of Groningen)
J. de Beer (NIDI, University of Groningen).
Estimates of future mortality often prove inaccurate as conventional extrapolative mortality projection methods do not capture the impact of smoking nor the mortality delay: the shift in the age -at-death
distribution towards older ages. The added value of incorporating information on smoking into mortality projections has been
demonstrated recently. In addition, recent analyses of mortality trends reveal a transition from mortality compression (a changing shape of the age
-at death distribution with more deaths occurring around the
modal age at death) towards mortality delay. In this paper we will estimate future life expectancy for the Netherlands by simultaneously taking into
account the effect of smoking and developments in delay and compression of mortality. Based on lung-cancer and all-cause mortality data from 1950 to 2012, we (1) assess the relationship between smoking and the extent of mortality delay versus mortality compression using our CoDe
mortality model, (2) project non-smoking-related mortality by extrapolating the obtained delay (and compression) parameter values up until 2050, (3) project all -cause mortality by combining this projection of non-
smoking-related mortality with an earlier projection of smoking-related mortality. Changes over time in delay and compression for the total population in the Netherlands result from changes in the age at death distribution of smokers and non-smokers, and the prevalence of smoking. Compared to the total population, for non-smokers increases in the modal age at death indicating mortality delay - are much more linear, and more similar for men and women. Projections based on
mortality delay for the Netherlands should therefore take into account smoking.
Our mortality projection – simultaneously taking into account mortality delay and smoking - results in higher life expectancy values in 2050 than a conventional (=Lee-Carter) projection, more delay, and more deaths at advanced ages.