A Century of Shifting Native Species-Accumulation Curves Reveals Long-Term Biodiversity Loss

TY - JOUR

T1 - A Century of Shifting Native Species-Accumulation Curves Reveals Long-Term Biodiversity Loss

AU - Pan, Kaixuan

AU - Marshall, Leon

AU - Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.

AU - de Snoo, Geert R.

N1 - Data archiving: no NIOO data

PY - 2026/6

Y1 - 2026/6

N2 - The species-area relationship is a cornerstone of biodiversity theory and conservation. Yet, its temporal stability remains largely untested. Using nearly a century of disjunct vegetation-plot data from the Netherlands, we assess changes in the species-area relationship by constructing species-accumulation curves (SACs). We show that SACs have flattened significantly over time, indicating widespread biodiversity decline driven by habitat degradation and spatial homogenization, even within protected areas. Although grassland biodiversity has rebounded, forest biodiversity continues to decline, suggesting a greater extinction debt. These findings provide unprecedented evidence that biodiversity patterns captured by SACs shift over time. They also reveal a critical limitation of conservation strategies that rely solely on protected area expansion. As global biodiversity goals aim to halt biodiversity loss by 2030, our results emphasise the need for adaptive conservation strategies that integrate area-based protection with large-scale habitat restoration and improved ecosystem management.

AB - The species-area relationship is a cornerstone of biodiversity theory and conservation. Yet, its temporal stability remains largely untested. Using nearly a century of disjunct vegetation-plot data from the Netherlands, we assess changes in the species-area relationship by constructing species-accumulation curves (SACs). We show that SACs have flattened significantly over time, indicating widespread biodiversity decline driven by habitat degradation and spatial homogenization, even within protected areas. Although grassland biodiversity has rebounded, forest biodiversity continues to decline, suggesting a greater extinction debt. These findings provide unprecedented evidence that biodiversity patterns captured by SACs shift over time. They also reveal a critical limitation of conservation strategies that rely solely on protected area expansion. As global biodiversity goals aim to halt biodiversity loss by 2030, our results emphasise the need for adaptive conservation strategies that integrate area-based protection with large-scale habitat restoration and improved ecosystem management.

KW - biodiversity conservation

KW - biodiversity patterns

KW - biodiversity recovery

KW - ecosystem restoration

KW - forests

KW - GBF targets

KW - grasslands

KW - long-term biodiversity change

KW - Natura 2000

KW - reverse biodiversity loss

U2 - 10.1111/ele.70429

DO - 10.1111/ele.70429

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105041890780

SN - 1461-023X

VL - 29

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

IS - 6

M1 - e70429

ER -