A Longitudinal Study on Twitter-Based Forecasting of Five Dutch National Elections

Eric Sanders, A. van den Bosch

Research output: Chapter in book/volumeContribution to conference proceedingsScientificpeer-review

Abstract

We report on an eight-year longitudinal study of predicting the outcome of elections based on party mentions in tweets. Five Dutch national elections for the parliament and senate between 2011 and 2019 were examined. Configurations with four parameters were tested. For three elections, reasonably accurate predictions can be obtained that are under twice the error of the classic polls, but only after post-hoc optimization. When the same optimal parameter configuration is used for all elections, the results worsen.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSocial Informatics
Subtitle of host publicationSocInfo 2019
Place of PublicationUrbana-Champaign
PublisherSpringer
Pages128-142
Volume11864
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-34971-4
ISBN (Print)978-3-030-34970-7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Nov 2019

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science
PublisherSpringer
Volume11864

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  • Cite this

    Sanders, E., & van den Bosch, A. (2019). A Longitudinal Study on Twitter-Based Forecasting of Five Dutch National Elections. In Social Informatics: SocInfo 2019 (Vol. 11864, pp. 128-142). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 11864). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-34971-4_9