Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient.

Viktoriia Radchuk; Thomas Reed; Céline Teplitsky; Martijn van de Pol; Anne Charmantier; Christopher Hassall; Peter Adamík; Frank Adriaensen; Markus P. Ahola; Peter Arcese; Jesús Miguel Avilés; Javier Balbontin; Karl S. Berg; Antoni Borras; Sarah Burthe; Jean Clobert; Nina Dehnhard; Florentino de Lope; André A. Dhondt; Niels J. Dingemanse; Hideyuki Doi; Tapio Eeva; Joerns Fickel; Iolanda Filella; Frode Fossøy; Anne E. Goodenough; Stephen J. G. Hall; Bengt Hansson; Michael Harris; Dennis Hasselquist; Thomas Hickler; Jasmin Joshi; Heather Kharouba; Juan Gabriel Martínez; Jean-Baptiste Mihoub; James A. Mills; Mercedes Molina-Morales; Arne Moksnes; Arpat Ozgul; Deseada Parejo; Philippe Pilard; Maud Poisbleau; Francois Rousset; Mark-Oliver Rödel; David Scott; Juan Carlos Senar; Constanti Stefanescu; Bård G. Stokke; Tamotsu Kusano; Maja Tarka; Corey E. Tarwater; Kirsten Thonicke; Jack Thorley; Andreas Wilting; Piotr Tryjanowski; Juha Merilä; Ben C. Sheldon; Anders Pape Møller; Erik Matthysen; Fredric Janzen; F. Stephen Dobson; Marcel E. Visser; Steven R. Beissinger; Alexandre Courtiol; Stephanie Kramer-Schadt

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient.

Viktoriia Radchuk (Corresponding author), Thomas Reed, Céline Teplitsky, Martijn van de Pol, Anne Charmantier, Christopher Hassall, Peter Adamík, Frank Adriaensen, Markus P. Ahola, Peter Arcese, Jesús Miguel Avilés, Javier Balbontin, Karl S. Berg, Antoni Borras, Sarah Burthe, Jean Clobert, Nina Dehnhard, Florentino de Lope, André A. Dhondt, Niels J. DingemanseHideyuki Doi, Tapio Eeva, Joerns Fickel, Iolanda Filella, Frode Fossøy, Anne E. Goodenough, Stephen J. G. Hall, Bengt Hansson, Michael Harris, Dennis Hasselquist, Thomas Hickler, Jasmin Joshi, Heather Kharouba, Juan Gabriel Martínez, Jean-Baptiste Mihoub, James A. Mills, Mercedes Molina-Morales, Arne Moksnes, Arpat Ozgul, Deseada Parejo, Philippe Pilard, Maud Poisbleau, Francois Rousset, Mark-Oliver Rödel, David Scott, Juan Carlos Senar, Constanti Stefanescu, Bård G. Stokke, Tamotsu Kusano, Maja Tarka, Corey E. Tarwater, Kirsten Thonicke, Jack Thorley, Andreas Wilting, Piotr Tryjanowski, Juha Merilä, Ben C. Sheldon, Anders Pape Møller, Erik Matthysen, Fredric Janzen, F. Stephen Dobson, Marcel E. Visser, Steven R. Beissinger, Alexandre Courtiol, Stephanie Kramer-Schadt

NIOO - Animal Ecology (AnE)

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Abstract

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

Original language	English
Article number	3109
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	10
Issue number	3109
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4
Publication status	Published - 2019

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Radchuk, V., Reed, T., Teplitsky, C., van de Pol, M., Charmantier, A., Hassall, C., Adamík, P., Adriaensen, F., Ahola, M. P., Arcese, P., Miguel Avilés, J., Balbontin, J., Berg, K. S., Borras, A., Burthe, S., Clobert, J., Dehnhard, N., de Lope, F., Dhondt, A. A., ... Kramer-Schadt, S. (2019). Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient. Nature Communications, 10(3109), [3109]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4

Radchuk, Viktoriia ; Reed, Thomas ; Teplitsky, Céline ; van de Pol, Martijn ; Charmantier, Anne ; Hassall, Christopher ; Adamík, Peter ; Adriaensen, Frank ; Ahola, Markus P. ; Arcese, Peter ; Miguel Avilés, Jesús ; Balbontin, Javier ; Berg, Karl S. ; Borras, Antoni ; Burthe, Sarah ; Clobert, Jean ; Dehnhard, Nina ; de Lope, Florentino ; Dhondt, André A. ; Dingemanse, Niels J. ; Doi, Hideyuki ; Eeva, Tapio ; Fickel, Joerns ; Filella, Iolanda ; Fossøy, Frode ; Goodenough, Anne E. ; Hall, Stephen J. G. ; Hansson, Bengt ; Harris, Michael ; Hasselquist, Dennis ; Hickler, Thomas ; Joshi, Jasmin ; Kharouba, Heather ; Martínez, Juan Gabriel ; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste ; Mills, James A. ; Molina-Morales, Mercedes ; Moksnes, Arne ; Ozgul, Arpat ; Parejo, Deseada ; Pilard, Philippe ; Poisbleau, Maud ; Rousset, Francois ; Rödel, Mark-Oliver ; Scott, David ; Senar, Juan Carlos ; Stefanescu, Constanti ; Stokke, Bård G. ; Kusano, Tamotsu ; Tarka, Maja ; Tarwater, Corey E. ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Thorley, Jack ; Wilting, Andreas ; Tryjanowski, Piotr ; Merilä, Juha ; Sheldon, Ben C. ; Pape Møller, Anders ; Matthysen, Erik ; Janzen, Fredric ; Dobson, F. Stephen ; Visser, Marcel E. ; Beissinger, Steven R. ; Courtiol, Alexandre ; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie. / Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient. In: Nature Communications. 2019 ; Vol. 10, No. 3109.

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abstract = "Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.",

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note = "6779, AnE; Data Archiving: Data archived at Publisher and: The PRC dataset, containing metadata on each study as well as coefficients estimated for each step of the framework (Fig. 1) per each study, is available as Supplementary Data 4. We also make available the raw data for a subset of studies for which we received the consent of data owners (4819 out of 4835 studies). These data are available as part of the R package {\textquoteleft}adRes{\textquoteright} (www.github.com/radchukv/adRes), which implements the complete workflow of this study and provides functions to be used to conduct similar analyses on new data in the future. The source data underlying Figs. 1b, c, 1e, f, 2, 3, 4 and 5a–c are provided as a Source Data file.",

year = "2019",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

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Radchuk, V, Reed, T, Teplitsky, C, van de Pol, M, Charmantier, A, Hassall, C, Adamík, P, Adriaensen, F, Ahola, MP, Arcese, P, Miguel Avilés, J, Balbontin, J, Berg, KS, Borras, A, Burthe, S, Clobert, J, Dehnhard, N, de Lope, F, Dhondt, AA, Dingemanse, NJ, Doi, H, Eeva, T, Fickel, J, Filella, I, Fossøy, F, Goodenough, AE, Hall, SJG, Hansson, B, Harris, M, Hasselquist, D, Hickler, T, Joshi, J, Kharouba, H, Martínez, JG, Mihoub, J-B, Mills, JA, Molina-Morales, M, Moksnes, A, Ozgul, A, Parejo, D, Pilard, P, Poisbleau, M, Rousset, F, Rödel, M-O, Scott, D, Senar, JC, Stefanescu, C, Stokke, BG, Kusano, T, Tarka, M, Tarwater, CE, Thonicke, K, Thorley, J, Wilting, A, Tryjanowski, P, Merilä, J, Sheldon, BC, Pape Møller, A, Matthysen, E, Janzen, F, Dobson, FS, Visser, ME, Beissinger, SR, Courtiol, A & Kramer-Schadt, S 2019, 'Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient.', Nature Communications, vol. 10, no. 3109, 3109. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient. / Radchuk, Viktoriia (Corresponding author); Reed, Thomas; Teplitsky, Céline; van de Pol, Martijn; Charmantier, Anne; Hassall, Christopher; Adamík, Peter; Adriaensen, Frank; Ahola, Markus P.; Arcese, Peter; Miguel Avilés, Jesús; Balbontin, Javier; Berg, Karl S.; Borras, Antoni; Burthe, Sarah; Clobert, Jean; Dehnhard, Nina; de Lope, Florentino; Dhondt, André A.; Dingemanse, Niels J.; Doi, Hideyuki; Eeva, Tapio; Fickel, Joerns; Filella, Iolanda; Fossøy, Frode; Goodenough, Anne E.; Hall, Stephen J. G.; Hansson, Bengt; Harris, Michael; Hasselquist, Dennis; Hickler, Thomas; Joshi, Jasmin; Kharouba, Heather; Martínez, Juan Gabriel; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Mills, James A.; Molina-Morales, Mercedes; Moksnes, Arne; Ozgul, Arpat; Parejo, Deseada; Pilard, Philippe; Poisbleau, Maud; Rousset, Francois; Rödel, Mark-Oliver; Scott, David; Senar, Juan Carlos; Stefanescu, Constanti; Stokke, Bård G.; Kusano, Tamotsu; Tarka, Maja; Tarwater, Corey E.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Thorley, Jack; Wilting, Andreas; Tryjanowski, Piotr; Merilä, Juha; Sheldon, Ben C.; Pape Møller, Anders; Matthysen, Erik; Janzen, Fredric; Dobson, F. Stephen; Visser, Marcel E.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Courtiol, Alexandre; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie.

In: Nature Communications, Vol. 10, No. 3109, 3109, 2019.

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient.

AU - Radchuk, Viktoriia

AU - Reed, Thomas

AU - Teplitsky, Céline

AU - van de Pol, Martijn

AU - Charmantier, Anne

AU - Hassall, Christopher

AU - Adamík, Peter

AU - Adriaensen, Frank

AU - Ahola, Markus P.

AU - Arcese, Peter

AU - Miguel Avilés, Jesús

AU - Balbontin, Javier

AU - Berg, Karl S.

AU - Borras, Antoni

AU - Burthe, Sarah

AU - Clobert, Jean

AU - Dehnhard, Nina

AU - de Lope, Florentino

AU - Dhondt, André A.

AU - Dingemanse, Niels J.

AU - Doi, Hideyuki

AU - Eeva, Tapio

AU - Fickel, Joerns

AU - Filella, Iolanda

AU - Fossøy, Frode

AU - Goodenough, Anne E.

AU - Hall, Stephen J. G.

AU - Hansson, Bengt

AU - Harris, Michael

AU - Hasselquist, Dennis

AU - Hickler, Thomas

AU - Joshi, Jasmin

AU - Kharouba, Heather

AU - Martínez, Juan Gabriel

AU - Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste

AU - Mills, James A.

AU - Molina-Morales, Mercedes

AU - Moksnes, Arne

AU - Ozgul, Arpat

AU - Parejo, Deseada

AU - Pilard, Philippe

AU - Poisbleau, Maud

AU - Rousset, Francois

AU - Rödel, Mark-Oliver

AU - Scott, David

AU - Senar, Juan Carlos

AU - Stefanescu, Constanti

AU - Stokke, Bård G.

AU - Kusano, Tamotsu

AU - Tarka, Maja

AU - Tarwater, Corey E.

AU - Thonicke, Kirsten

AU - Thorley, Jack

AU - Wilting, Andreas

AU - Tryjanowski, Piotr

AU - Merilä, Juha

AU - Sheldon, Ben C.

AU - Pape Møller, Anders

AU - Matthysen, Erik

AU - Janzen, Fredric

AU - Dobson, F. Stephen

AU - Visser, Marcel E.

AU - Beissinger, Steven R.

AU - Courtiol, Alexandre

AU - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie

N1 - 6779, AnE; Data Archiving: Data archived at Publisher and: The PRC dataset, containing metadata on each study as well as coefficients estimated for each step of the framework (Fig. 1) per each study, is available as Supplementary Data 4. We also make available the raw data for a subset of studies for which we received the consent of data owners (4819 out of 4835 studies). These data are available as part of the R package ‘adRes’ (www.github.com/radchukv/adRes), which implements the complete workflow of this study and provides functions to be used to conduct similar analyses on new data in the future. The source data underlying Figs. 1b, c, 1e, f, 2, 3, 4 and 5a–c are provided as a Source Data file.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

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AB - Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

KW - international

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4

DO - 10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4

M3 - Article

VL - 10

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

IS - 3109

M1 - 3109

ER -

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6779_RadchukFinal published version, 2.17 MBLicence: CC BY