An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands

M. Alders, J.A.A. de Beer (Corresponding author)

Research output: Chapter in book/volumeChapterScientificpeer-review

Abstract

The Dutch population forecasts published by Statistics Netherlands every other year project the future size and age structure of the population of the Netherlands up to 2050. The forecasts are based on assumptions about future changes in fertility, mortality, and international migration. Obviously, the validity of assumptions on changes in the long run is uncertain, even if the assumptions are expected to describe the expected future according to the forecasters. It is important that users of forecasts are aware of the degree of uncertainty. In order to give accurate information about the degree of uncertainty of population forecasts Statistics Netherlands produces stochastic population forecasts. Instead of publishing two alternative deterministic (low and high) variants in addition to the medium variant, as was the practice up to a few years ago, forecast intervals are made. These intervals are calculated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations are based on assumptions about the probability distributions of future fertility, mortality, and international migration.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationOld and new perspectives on mortality forecasting
EditorsT. Bengtsson, N. Keilman
PublisherSpringer
Pages123-143
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-05075-7
ISBN (Print)978-3-030-05074-0
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

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    Alders, M., & de Beer, J. A. A. (2019). An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands. In T. Bengtsson, & N. Keilman (Eds.), Old and new perspectives on mortality forecasting (pp. 123-143). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7_11