Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

Liam D. Bailey; Martijn van de Pol; Frank Adriaensen; Aneta Arct; Emilio Barba; Paul E. Bellamy; Suzanne Bonamour; Jean Charles Bouvier; Malcolm D. Burgess; Anne Charmantier; Camillo Cusimano; Blandine Doligez; Szymon M. Drobniak; Anna Dubiec; Marcel Eens; Tapio Eeva; Peter N. Ferns; Anne E. Goodenough; Ian R. Hartley; Shelley A. Hinsley; Elena Ivankina; Rimvydas Juškaitis; Bart Kempenaers; Anvar B. Kerimov; Claire Lavigne; Agu Leivits; Mark C. Mainwaring; Erik Matthysen; Jan Åke Nilsson; Markku Orell; Seppo Rytkönen; Juan Carlos Senar; Ben C. Sheldon; Alberto Sorace; Martyn J. Stenning; János Török; Kees van Oers; Emma Vatka; Stefan J.G. Vriend; Marcel E. Visser

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29635-4

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

Liam D. Bailey^* (Corresponding author), Martijn van de Pol, Frank Adriaensen, Aneta Arct, Emilio Barba, Paul E. Bellamy, Suzanne Bonamour, Jean Charles Bouvier, Malcolm D. Burgess, Anne Charmantier, Camillo Cusimano, Blandine Doligez, Szymon M. Drobniak, Anna Dubiec, Marcel Eens, Tapio Eeva, Peter N. Ferns, Anne E. Goodenough, Ian R. Hartley, Shelley A. HinsleyElena Ivankina, Rimvydas Juškaitis, Bart Kempenaers, Anvar B. Kerimov, Claire Lavigne, Agu Leivits, Mark C. Mainwaring, Erik Matthysen, Jan Åke Nilsson, Markku Orell, Seppo Rytkönen, Juan Carlos Senar, Ben C. Sheldon, Alberto Sorace, Martyn J. Stenning, János Török, Kees van Oers, Emma Vatka, Stefan J.G. Vriend, Marcel E. Visser

^*Corresponding author for this work

NIOO - Animal Ecology (AnE)

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

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Abstract

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species’ range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species’ range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

Original language	English
Article number	2112
Pages (from-to)	2112
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	13
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29635-4
Publication status	Published - 2022

Keywords

Animals
Climate Change
Passeriformes
Seasons
Songbirds
Temperature

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7440_BaileyFinal published version, 1.8 MBLicence: CC BY

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Bailey, L. D., van de Pol, M., Adriaensen, F., Arct, A., Barba, E., Bellamy, P. E., Bonamour, S., Bouvier, J. C., Burgess, M. D., Charmantier, A., Cusimano, C., Doligez, B., Drobniak, S. M., Dubiec, A., Eens, M., Eeva, T., Ferns, P. N., Goodenough, A. E., Hartley, I. R., ... Visser, M. E. (2022). Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation. Nature Communications, 13(1), 2112. Article 2112. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29635-4

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title = "Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation",

abstract = "The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species{\textquoteright} range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species{\textquoteright} range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.",

keywords = "Animals, Climate Change, Passeriformes, Seasons, Songbirds, Temperature",

author = "Bailey, {Liam D.} and {van de Pol}, Martijn and Frank Adriaensen and Aneta Arct and Emilio Barba and Bellamy, {Paul E.} and Suzanne Bonamour and Bouvier, {Jean Charles} and Burgess, {Malcolm D.} and Anne Charmantier and Camillo Cusimano and Blandine Doligez and Drobniak, {Szymon M.} and Anna Dubiec and Marcel Eens and Tapio Eeva and Ferns, {Peter N.} and Goodenough, {Anne E.} and Hartley, {Ian R.} and Hinsley, {Shelley A.} and Elena Ivankina and Rimvydas Ju{\v s}kaitis and Bart Kempenaers and Kerimov, {Anvar B.} and Claire Lavigne and Agu Leivits and Mainwaring, {Mark C.} and Erik Matthysen and Nilsson, {Jan {\AA}ke} and Markku Orell and Seppo Rytk{\"o}nen and Senar, {Juan Carlos} and Sheldon, {Ben C.} and Alberto Sorace and Stenning, {Martyn J.} and J{\'a}nos T{\"o}r{\"o}k and {van Oers}, Kees and Emma Vatka and Vriend, {Stefan J.G.} and Visser, {Marcel E.}",

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year = "2022",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-022-29635-4",

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Bailey, LD, van de Pol, M, Adriaensen, F, Arct, A, Barba, E, Bellamy, PE, Bonamour, S, Bouvier, JC, Burgess, MD, Charmantier, A, Cusimano, C, Doligez, B, Drobniak, SM, Dubiec, A, Eens, M, Eeva, T, Ferns, PN, Goodenough, AE, Hartley, IR, Hinsley, SA, Ivankina, E, Juškaitis, R, Kempenaers, B, Kerimov, AB, Lavigne, C, Leivits, A, Mainwaring, MC, Matthysen, E, Nilsson, JÅ, Orell, M, Rytkönen, S, Senar, JC, Sheldon, BC, Sorace, A, Stenning, MJ, Török, J, van Oers, K, Vatka, E, Vriend, SJG & Visser, ME 2022, 'Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation', Nature Communications, vol. 13, no. 1, 2112, pp. 2112. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29635-4

TY - JOUR

T1 - Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

AU - Bailey, Liam D.

AU - van de Pol, Martijn

AU - Adriaensen, Frank

AU - Arct, Aneta

AU - Barba, Emilio

AU - Bellamy, Paul E.

AU - Bonamour, Suzanne

AU - Bouvier, Jean Charles

AU - Burgess, Malcolm D.

AU - Charmantier, Anne

AU - Cusimano, Camillo

AU - Doligez, Blandine

AU - Drobniak, Szymon M.

AU - Dubiec, Anna

AU - Eens, Marcel

AU - Eeva, Tapio

AU - Ferns, Peter N.

AU - Goodenough, Anne E.

AU - Hartley, Ian R.

AU - Hinsley, Shelley A.

AU - Ivankina, Elena

AU - Juškaitis, Rimvydas

AU - Kempenaers, Bart

AU - Kerimov, Anvar B.

AU - Lavigne, Claire

AU - Leivits, Agu

AU - Mainwaring, Mark C.

AU - Matthysen, Erik

AU - Nilsson, Jan Åke

AU - Orell, Markku

AU - Rytkönen, Seppo

AU - Senar, Juan Carlos

AU - Sheldon, Ben C.

AU - Sorace, Alberto

AU - Stenning, Martyn J.

AU - Török, János

AU - van Oers, Kees

AU - Vatka, Emma

AU - Vriend, Stefan J.G.

AU - Visser, Marcel E.

N1 - 7440, AnE

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species’ range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species’ range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

AB - The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species’ range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species’ range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

KW - Animals

KW - Climate Change

KW - Passeriformes

KW - Seasons

KW - Songbirds

KW - Temperature

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-29635-4

DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-29635-4

M3 - Article

C2 - 35440555

AN - SCOPUS:85128421042

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 13

SP - 2112

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 2112

ER -

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

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Keywords

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