Can we Bend the Curve: Trends in Global Biodiversity Scenarios

TY - JOUR

T1 - Can we Bend the Curve: Trends in Global Biodiversity Scenarios

AU - Aschi, Flavia

AU - Dekker, Stefan

AU - Leclère, David

AU - Marques, Alexandra

AU - Neumann, Christian

AU - Ambrosio, Geanderson

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef

N1 - Data archiving: no NIOO data

PY - 2026/2/6

Y1 - 2026/2/6

N2 - Internationally, it has been agreed to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, a commitment partly underpinned by model-based scenario analyses showing that bending the trend is possible. These scenarios provide insights into alternative future biodiversity trends and their drivers. Our meta-analysis differentiates scenarios that project biodiversity loss and that halt or reverse the trend based on their quantitative outcomes and explores their key characteristics such as scenario assumptions, drivers of loss, biodiversity indicators and models used. We found that bending-the-curve studies are scarce, and mostly do no account for climate change, which risks suggesting that the trend can be bent too easily. Our findings indicate that bending is only achievable with integrated efforts across different sectors, such as nature conservation, sustainable food production, diet change, and reduced food waste. To better support policymaking, scenarios should be based on model intercomparisons and use standardize indicators to allow comparisons across studies, account for additional drivers of loss to represent the real threats to biodiversity, and include more ambitious cross-sectoral actions to effectively bend the curve.

AB - Internationally, it has been agreed to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, a commitment partly underpinned by model-based scenario analyses showing that bending the trend is possible. These scenarios provide insights into alternative future biodiversity trends and their drivers. Our meta-analysis differentiates scenarios that project biodiversity loss and that halt or reverse the trend based on their quantitative outcomes and explores their key characteristics such as scenario assumptions, drivers of loss, biodiversity indicators and models used. We found that bending-the-curve studies are scarce, and mostly do no account for climate change, which risks suggesting that the trend can be bent too easily. Our findings indicate that bending is only achievable with integrated efforts across different sectors, such as nature conservation, sustainable food production, diet change, and reduced food waste. To better support policymaking, scenarios should be based on model intercomparisons and use standardize indicators to allow comparisons across studies, account for additional drivers of loss to represent the real threats to biodiversity, and include more ambitious cross-sectoral actions to effectively bend the curve.

KW - Biodiversity

KW - Conservation of Natural Resources

KW - Climate Change

KW - Models, Theoretical

KW - Humans

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.aeb2277

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.aeb2277

M3 - Article

C2 - 41650260

SN - 2375-2548

VL - 12

JO - Science advances

JF - Science advances

IS - 6

M1 - eaeb2277

ER -