Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

Mingkai Jiang; Belinda E. Medlyn; David Wårlind; Jürgen Knauer; Katrin Fleischer; Daniel S. Goll; Stefan Olin; Xiaojuan Yang; Lin Yu; Sönke Zaehle; Haicheng Zhang; He Lv; Kristine Y. Crous; Yolima Carrillo; Catriona Macdonald; Ian Anderson; Matthias M. Boer; Mark Farrell; Andrew Gherlenda; Laura Castañeda-Gómez; Shun Hasegawa; Klaus Jarosch; Paul Milham; Raúl Ochoa-Hueso; Varsha Pathare; Johanna Pihlblad; Juan Piñeiro Nevado; Jeff Powell; Sally A. Power; Peter Reich; Markus Riegler; David S. Ellsworth; Benjamin Smith

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl5822

Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO ₂ enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

Mingkai Jiang^* (Corresponding author), Belinda E. Medlyn, David Wårlind, Jürgen Knauer, Katrin Fleischer, Daniel S. Goll, Stefan Olin, Xiaojuan Yang, Lin Yu, Sönke Zaehle, Haicheng Zhang, He Lv, Kristine Y. Crous, Yolima Carrillo, Catriona Macdonald, Ian Anderson, Matthias M. Boer, Mark Farrell, Andrew Gherlenda, Laura Castañeda-GómezShun Hasegawa, Klaus Jarosch, Paul Milham, Raúl Ochoa-Hueso, Varsha Pathare, Johanna Pihlblad, Juan Piñeiro Nevado, Jeff Powell, Sally A. Power, Peter Reich, Markus Riegler, David S. Ellsworth, Benjamin Smith

^*Corresponding author for this work

NIOO - Terrestrial Ecology (TE)

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

Abstract

The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO2-driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

Original language	English
Journal	Science advances
Volume	10
Issue number	27
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl5822
Publication status	Published - 05 Jul 2024

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Jiang, M., Medlyn, B. E., Wårlind, D., Knauer, J., Fleischer, K., Goll, D. S., Olin, S., Yang, X., Yu, L., Zaehle, S., Zhang, H., Lv, H., Crous, K. Y., Carrillo, Y., Macdonald, C., Anderson, I., Boer, M. M., Farrell, M., Gherlenda, A., ... Smith, B. (2024). Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO ₂ enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest. Science advances, 10(27). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl5822

@article{30c557f02c3e4d8c8086249600118e7e,

title = "Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest",

abstract = "The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO2-driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.",

author = "Mingkai Jiang and Medlyn, {Belinda E.} and David W{\aa}rlind and J{\"u}rgen Knauer and Katrin Fleischer and Goll, {Daniel S.} and Stefan Olin and Xiaojuan Yang and Lin Yu and S{\"o}nke Zaehle and Haicheng Zhang and He Lv and Crous, {Kristine Y.} and Yolima Carrillo and Catriona Macdonald and Ian Anderson and Boer, {Matthias M.} and Mark Farrell and Andrew Gherlenda and Laura Casta{\~n}eda-G{\'o}mez and Shun Hasegawa and Klaus Jarosch and Paul Milham and Ra{\'u}l Ochoa-Hueso and Varsha Pathare and Johanna Pihlblad and Nevado, {Juan Pi{\~n}eiro} and Jeff Powell and Power, {Sally A.} and Peter Reich and Markus Riegler and Ellsworth, {David S.} and Benjamin Smith",

note = "Data archiving: not nioo",

year = "2024",

month = jul,

day = "5",

doi = "10.1126/sciadv.adl5822",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

journal = "Science advances",

issn = "2375-2548",

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Jiang, M, Medlyn, BE, Wårlind, D, Knauer, J, Fleischer, K, Goll, DS, Olin, S, Yang, X, Yu, L, Zaehle, S, Zhang, H, Lv, H, Crous, KY, Carrillo, Y, Macdonald, C, Anderson, I, Boer, MM, Farrell, M, Gherlenda, A, Castañeda-Gómez, L, Hasegawa, S, Jarosch, K, Milham, P, Ochoa-Hueso, R, Pathare, V, Pihlblad, J, Nevado, JP, Powell, J, Power, SA, Reich, P, Riegler, M, Ellsworth, DS & Smith, B 2024, 'Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO ₂ enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest', Science advances, vol. 10, no. 27. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl5822

TY - JOUR

T1 - Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

AU - Jiang, Mingkai

AU - Medlyn, Belinda E.

AU - Wårlind, David

AU - Knauer, Jürgen

AU - Fleischer, Katrin

AU - Goll, Daniel S.

AU - Olin, Stefan

AU - Yang, Xiaojuan

AU - Yu, Lin

AU - Zaehle, Sönke

AU - Zhang, Haicheng

AU - Lv, He

AU - Crous, Kristine Y.

AU - Carrillo, Yolima

AU - Macdonald, Catriona

AU - Anderson, Ian

AU - Boer, Matthias M.

AU - Farrell, Mark

AU - Gherlenda, Andrew

AU - Castañeda-Gómez, Laura

AU - Hasegawa, Shun

AU - Jarosch, Klaus

AU - Milham, Paul

AU - Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl

AU - Pathare, Varsha

AU - Pihlblad, Johanna

AU - Nevado, Juan Piñeiro

AU - Powell, Jeff

AU - Power, Sally A.

AU - Reich, Peter

AU - Riegler, Markus

AU - Ellsworth, David S.

AU - Smith, Benjamin

N1 - Data archiving: not nioo

PY - 2024/7/5

Y1 - 2024/7/5

N2 - The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO2-driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

AB - The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO2-driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.adl5822

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.adl5822

M3 - Article

SN - 2375-2548

VL - 10

JO - Science advances

JF - Science advances

IS - 27

ER -

Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

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Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO ₂ enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest