Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines

AU - Saether, B-E.

AU - Engen, S.

AU - Møller, A.P.

AU - Matthysen, E.

AU - Adriaensen, F.

AU - Fiedler, W.

AU - Leivits, A.

AU - Lambrechts, M.M.

AU - Visser, M.E.

AU - Anker-Nilssen, T.

AU - Both, C.

AU - Dhondt, A.A.

AU - McCleery, R.

AU - McMeeking, J.

AU - Potti, J.

AU - Røstad, O.W.

AU - Thomson, D.L.

N1 - Reporting year: 2003 Metis note: 3208; CTE; PVD ; NPCC ; AnE; file:///L:/Endnotedatabases/NIOOPUB/pdfs/Pdfs2003/Saether_ea_3208.pdf

PY - 2003

Y1 - 2003

N2 - Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.

AB - Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.

KW - NIOO/PG/NPCC

U2 - 10.1098/rspb.2003.2499

DO - 10.1098/rspb.2003.2499

M3 - Article

SN - 0962-8452

VL - 270

SP - 2397

EP - 2404

JO - Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences

JF - Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences

IS - 1531

ER -