Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations

Joe P. Woodman; Stefan J.G. Vriend; Frank Adriaensen; Elena Álvarez; Alexander Artemyev; Emilio Barba; Malcolm D. Burgess; Samuel P. Caro; Laure Cauchard; Anne Charmantier; Ella F. Cole; Niels Dingemanse; Blandine Doligez; Tapio Eeva; Simon R. Evans; Arnaud Grégoire; Marcel Lambrechts; Agu Leivits; András Liker; Erik Matthysen; Markku Orell; John S. Park; Seppo Rytkönen; Juan Carlos Senar; Gábor Seress; Marta Szulkin; Kees van Oers; Emma Vatka; Marcel E. Visser; Josh A. Firth; Ben C. Sheldon

doi:10.1111/ele.70079

Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations

Joe P. Woodman^* (Corresponding author), Stefan J.G. Vriend, Frank Adriaensen, Elena Álvarez, Alexander Artemyev, Emilio Barba, Malcolm D. Burgess, Samuel P. Caro, Laure Cauchard, Anne Charmantier, Ella F. Cole, Niels Dingemanse, Blandine Doligez, Tapio Eeva, Simon R. Evans, Arnaud Grégoire, Marcel Lambrechts, Agu Leivits, András Liker, Erik MatthysenMarkku Orell, John S. Park, Seppo Rytkönen, Juan Carlos Senar, Gábor Seress, Marta Szulkin, Kees van Oers, Emma Vatka, Marcel E. Visser, Josh A. Firth, Ben C. Sheldon

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

Abstract

Variation in age structure influences population dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of the spatial scale at which its fluctuations are synchronised between populations. Using 32 great tit populations, spanning 4° W–33° E and 35°–65° N involving > 130,000 birds across 67 years, we quantify spatial synchrony in breeding demographic structure (subadult vs. adult breeders) and its drivers. We show that larger clutch sizes, colder winters, and larger beech crops lead to younger populations. We report distance-dependent synchrony of demographic structure, maintained at approximately 650 km. Despite covariation with demographic structure, we do not find evidence for environmental variables influencing the scale of synchrony, except for beech masting. We suggest that local ecological and density-dependent dynamics impact how environmental variation interacts with demographic structure, influencing estimates of the environment's effect on synchrony. Our analyses demonstrate the operation of synchrony in demographic structure over large scales, with implications for age-dependent demography in populations.

Original language	English
Article number	e70079
Journal	Ecology Letters
Volume	28
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70079
Publication status	Published - Feb 2025

Keywords

age structure
demographic structure
great tit
mast seeding
Moran effect
Parus major
population dynamics
spatial synchrony

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10.1111/ele.70079Licence: CC BY

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code from: Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations
Woodman, J. P., Vriend, S. J. G., Adriaensen, F., Álvarez, E., Artemyev, AV., Barba, E., Burgess, M. D., Caro, S. P., Cauchard, L., Charmantier, A., Cole, E. F., Dingemanse, N., Doligez, B. F., Eeva, T., Evans, S. R., Grégoire, A., Lambrechts, M. M., Leivits, A., Liker, A., Matthysen, E., & 11 othersOrell, M., Park, J. S., Rytkönen, S., Senar, J. C., Seress, G., Szulkin, M., van Oers, K., Vatka, E., Visser, M. E., Firth, J. A. & Sheldon, B. C., 22 Jan 2025
Research output: Non-textual form › Software › Scientific

Open Access

data from: Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations
Woodman, J. P. (Creator), Vriend, S. (Creator), Adriaensen, F. (Creator), Álvarez, E. (Creator), Artemyev, A. (Creator), Barba, E. (Creator), Burgess, M. D. (Creator), Caro, S. P. (Creator), Cauchard, L. (Creator), Charmantier, A. (Creator), Cole, E. F. (Creator), Dingemanse, N. (Creator), Doligez, B. F. (Creator), Eeva, T. (Creator), Evans, S. R. (Creator), Grégoire, A. (Creator), Lambrechts, M. M. (Creator), Leivits, A. (Creator), Liker, A. (Creator), Matthysen, E. (Creator), Orell, M. (Creator), Park, J. S. (Creator), Rytkönen, S. (Creator), Senar, J. C. (Creator), Seress, G. (Creator), Szulkin, M. (Creator), van Oers, K. (Creator), Vatka, E. (Creator), Visser, M. E. (Creator), Firth, J. A. (Creator) & Sheldon, B. C. (Creator), Dryad, 22 Jan 2025
DOI: 10.5061/dryad.k0p2ngfgg
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Woodman, J. P., Vriend, S. J. G., Adriaensen, F., Álvarez, E., Artemyev, A., Barba, E., Burgess, M. D., Caro, S. P., Cauchard, L., Charmantier, A., Cole, E. F., Dingemanse, N., Doligez, B., Eeva, T., Evans, S. R., Grégoire, A., Lambrechts, M., Leivits, A., Liker, A., ... Sheldon, B. C. (2025). Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations. Ecology Letters, 28(2), Article e70079. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70079

@article{807009ef80984af399caf670b2cd94b9,

title = "Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations",

abstract = "Variation in age structure influences population dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of the spatial scale at which its fluctuations are synchronised between populations. Using 32 great tit populations, spanning 4° W–33° E and 35°–65° N involving > 130,000 birds across 67 years, we quantify spatial synchrony in breeding demographic structure (subadult vs. adult breeders) and its drivers. We show that larger clutch sizes, colder winters, and larger beech crops lead to younger populations. We report distance-dependent synchrony of demographic structure, maintained at approximately 650 km. Despite covariation with demographic structure, we do not find evidence for environmental variables influencing the scale of synchrony, except for beech masting. We suggest that local ecological and density-dependent dynamics impact how environmental variation interacts with demographic structure, influencing estimates of the environment's effect on synchrony. Our analyses demonstrate the operation of synchrony in demographic structure over large scales, with implications for age-dependent demography in populations.",

keywords = "age structure, demographic structure, great tit, mast seeding, Moran effect, Parus major, population dynamics, spatial synchrony",

author = "Woodman, {Joe P.} and Vriend, {Stefan J.G.} and Frank Adriaensen and Elena {\'A}lvarez and Alexander Artemyev and Emilio Barba and Burgess, {Malcolm D.} and Caro, {Samuel P.} and Laure Cauchard and Anne Charmantier and Cole, {Ella F.} and Niels Dingemanse and Blandine Doligez and Tapio Eeva and Evans, {Simon R.} and Arnaud Gr{\'e}goire and Marcel Lambrechts and Agu Leivits and Andr{\'a}s Liker and Erik Matthysen and Markku Orell and Park, {John S.} and Seppo Rytk{\"o}nen and Senar, {Juan Carlos} and G{\'a}bor Seress and Marta Szulkin and {van Oers}, Kees and Emma Vatka and Visser, {Marcel E.} and Firth, {Josh A.} and Sheldon, {Ben C.}",

note = "Data archiving: Dryad, Zenodo",

year = "2025",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1111/ele.70079",

language = "English",

volume = "28",

journal = "Ecology Letters",

issn = "1461-023X",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "2",

}

Woodman, JP, Vriend, SJG, Adriaensen, F, Álvarez, E, Artemyev, A, Barba, E, Burgess, MD, Caro, SP, Cauchard, L, Charmantier, A, Cole, EF, Dingemanse, N, Doligez, B, Eeva, T, Evans, SR, Grégoire, A, Lambrechts, M, Leivits, A, Liker, A, Matthysen, E, Orell, M, Park, JS, Rytkönen, S, Senar, JC, Seress, G, Szulkin, M, van Oers, K, Vatka, E, Visser, ME, Firth, JA & Sheldon, BC 2025, 'Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations', Ecology Letters, vol. 28, no. 2, e70079. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70079

TY - JOUR

T1 - Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations

AU - Woodman, Joe P.

AU - Vriend, Stefan J.G.

AU - Adriaensen, Frank

AU - Álvarez, Elena

AU - Artemyev, Alexander

AU - Barba, Emilio

AU - Burgess, Malcolm D.

AU - Caro, Samuel P.

AU - Cauchard, Laure

AU - Charmantier, Anne

AU - Cole, Ella F.

AU - Dingemanse, Niels

AU - Doligez, Blandine

AU - Eeva, Tapio

AU - Evans, Simon R.

AU - Grégoire, Arnaud

AU - Lambrechts, Marcel

AU - Leivits, Agu

AU - Liker, András

AU - Matthysen, Erik

AU - Orell, Markku

AU - Park, John S.

AU - Rytkönen, Seppo

AU - Senar, Juan Carlos

AU - Seress, Gábor

AU - Szulkin, Marta

AU - van Oers, Kees

AU - Vatka, Emma

AU - Visser, Marcel E.

AU - Firth, Josh A.

AU - Sheldon, Ben C.

N1 - Data archiving: Dryad, Zenodo

PY - 2025/2

Y1 - 2025/2

N2 - Variation in age structure influences population dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of the spatial scale at which its fluctuations are synchronised between populations. Using 32 great tit populations, spanning 4° W–33° E and 35°–65° N involving > 130,000 birds across 67 years, we quantify spatial synchrony in breeding demographic structure (subadult vs. adult breeders) and its drivers. We show that larger clutch sizes, colder winters, and larger beech crops lead to younger populations. We report distance-dependent synchrony of demographic structure, maintained at approximately 650 km. Despite covariation with demographic structure, we do not find evidence for environmental variables influencing the scale of synchrony, except for beech masting. We suggest that local ecological and density-dependent dynamics impact how environmental variation interacts with demographic structure, influencing estimates of the environment's effect on synchrony. Our analyses demonstrate the operation of synchrony in demographic structure over large scales, with implications for age-dependent demography in populations.

AB - Variation in age structure influences population dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of the spatial scale at which its fluctuations are synchronised between populations. Using 32 great tit populations, spanning 4° W–33° E and 35°–65° N involving > 130,000 birds across 67 years, we quantify spatial synchrony in breeding demographic structure (subadult vs. adult breeders) and its drivers. We show that larger clutch sizes, colder winters, and larger beech crops lead to younger populations. We report distance-dependent synchrony of demographic structure, maintained at approximately 650 km. Despite covariation with demographic structure, we do not find evidence for environmental variables influencing the scale of synchrony, except for beech masting. We suggest that local ecological and density-dependent dynamics impact how environmental variation interacts with demographic structure, influencing estimates of the environment's effect on synchrony. Our analyses demonstrate the operation of synchrony in demographic structure over large scales, with implications for age-dependent demography in populations.

KW - age structure

KW - demographic structure

KW - great tit

KW - mast seeding

KW - Moran effect

KW - Parus major

KW - population dynamics

KW - spatial synchrony

U2 - 10.1111/ele.70079

DO - 10.1111/ele.70079

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85218081835

SN - 1461-023X

VL - 28

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

IS - 2

M1 - e70079

ER -

Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations

Abstract

Keywords

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Research output

code from: Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations

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data from: Continent-Wide Drivers of Spatial Synchrony in Breeding Demographic Structure Across Wild Great Tit Populations

Cite this