Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria’s ecosystem services

Andrea S. Downing; Egbert H. van Nes; John S. Balirwa; Joost Beuving; P.O.J. Bwathondi; Lauren J. Chapman; Ilse J. M. Cornelissen; Iain G. Cowx; Kees P. C. Goudswaard; Robert E. Hecky; Jan H. Janse; Annette B. G. Janssen; Les Kaufman; Mary A. Kishe-Machumu; Jeppe Kolding; Willem Ligtvoet; Dismas Mbabazi; Modesta Medard; Oliva C. Mkumbo; Enock Mlaponi; Antony T. Munyaho; Leopold A. J. Nagelkerke; Richard Ogutu-Ohwayo; William O. Ojwang; Happy K. Peter; Daniel E. Schindler; Ole Seehausen; Diana Sharpe; Greg M. Silsbe; Lewis Sitoki; Rhoda Tumwebaze; Denis Tweddle; Karen E. van de Wolfshaar; Han van Dijk; Ellen van Donk; Jacco C. van Rijssel; Paul A. M. van Zwieten; Jan Wanink; F. Witte; Wolf M. Mooij

doi:10.5751/ES-06965-190431

Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria’s ecosystem services

Andrea S. Downing, Egbert H. van Nes, John S. Balirwa, Joost Beuving, P.O.J. Bwathondi, Lauren J. Chapman, Ilse J. M. Cornelissen, Iain G. Cowx, Kees P. C. Goudswaard, Robert E. Hecky, Jan H. Janse, Annette B. G. Janssen, Les Kaufman, Mary A. Kishe-Machumu, Jeppe Kolding, Willem Ligtvoet, Dismas Mbabazi, Modesta Medard, Oliva C. Mkumbo, Enock MlaponiAntony T. Munyaho, Leopold A. J. Nagelkerke, Richard Ogutu-Ohwayo, William O. Ojwang, Happy K. Peter, Daniel E. Schindler, Ole Seehausen, Diana Sharpe, Greg M. Silsbe, Lewis Sitoki, Rhoda Tumwebaze, Denis Tweddle, Karen E. van de Wolfshaar, Han van Dijk, Ellen van Donk, Jacco C. van Rijssel, Paul A. M. van Zwieten, Jan Wanink, F. Witte, Wolf M. Mooij

NIOO - Aquatic Ecology (AqE)

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

66 Citations (Scopus)

192 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Original language	English
Article number	31
Journal	Ecology and Society
Volume	19
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06965-190431
Publication status	Published - 2014

Keywords

eutrophication
feedbacks
fisheries
Lake Victoria
model
multidisciplinary, social-ecological system
sustainability
international

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10.5751/ES-06965-190431

5740_Downing
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NWO - Identifying critical nutrient loadings for Lake Taihu, China, with a dynamic model for integrated water system research
Mooij, W. M.
01/10/2012 → 15/05/2017
Project: Research

Cite this

Downing, A. S., van Nes, E. H., Balirwa, J. S., Beuving, J., Bwathondi, P. O. J., Chapman, L. J., Cornelissen, I. J. M., Cowx, I. G., Goudswaard, K. P. C., Hecky, R. E., Janse, J. H., Janssen, A. B. G., Kaufman, L., Kishe-Machumu, M. A., Kolding, J., Ligtvoet, W., Mbabazi, D., Medard, M., Mkumbo, O. C., ... Mooij, W. M. (2014). Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria’s ecosystem services. Ecology and Society, 19(4), Article 31. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06965-190431

@article{885cc751a08f41d0b4132ccb3ee422e6,

title = "Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria{\textquoteright}s ecosystem services",

abstract = "East Africa{\textquoteright}s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake{\textquoteright}s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake{\textquoteright}s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria{\textquoteright}s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake{\textquoteright}s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks{\textquoteright} vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society{\textquoteright}s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.",

keywords = "eutrophication, feedbacks, fisheries, Lake Victoria, model, multidisciplinary, social-ecological system, sustainability, international",

author = "Downing, {Andrea S.} and {van Nes}, {Egbert H.} and Balirwa, {John S.} and Joost Beuving and P.O.J. Bwathondi and Chapman, {Lauren J.} and Cornelissen, {Ilse J. M.} and Cowx, {Iain G.} and Goudswaard, {Kees P. C.} and Hecky, {Robert E.} and Janse, {Jan H.} and Janssen, {Annette B. G.} and Les Kaufman and Kishe-Machumu, {Mary A.} and Jeppe Kolding and Willem Ligtvoet and Dismas Mbabazi and Modesta Medard and Mkumbo, {Oliva C.} and Enock Mlaponi and Munyaho, {Antony T.} and Nagelkerke, {Leopold A. J.} and Richard Ogutu-Ohwayo and Ojwang, {William O.} and Peter, {Happy K.} and Schindler, {Daniel E.} and Ole Seehausen and Diana Sharpe and Silsbe, {Greg M.} and Lewis Sitoki and Rhoda Tumwebaze and Denis Tweddle and {van de Wolfshaar}, {Karen E.} and {van Dijk}, Han and {van Donk}, Ellen and {van Rijssel}, {Jacco C.} and {van Zwieten}, {Paul A. M.} and Jan Wanink and F. Witte and Mooij, {Wolf M.}",

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Downing, AS, van Nes, EH, Balirwa, JS, Beuving, J, Bwathondi, POJ, Chapman, LJ, Cornelissen, IJM, Cowx, IG, Goudswaard, KPC, Hecky, RE, Janse, JH, Janssen, ABG, Kaufman, L, Kishe-Machumu, MA, Kolding, J, Ligtvoet, W, Mbabazi, D, Medard, M, Mkumbo, OC, Mlaponi, E, Munyaho, AT, Nagelkerke, LAJ, Ogutu-Ohwayo, R, Ojwang, WO, Peter, HK, Schindler, DE, Seehausen, O, Sharpe, D, Silsbe, GM, Sitoki, L, Tumwebaze, R, Tweddle, D, van de Wolfshaar, KE, van Dijk, H, van Donk, E, van Rijssel, JC, van Zwieten, PAM, Wanink, J, Witte, F & Mooij, WM 2014, 'Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria’s ecosystem services', Ecology and Society, vol. 19, no. 4, 31. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06965-190431

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T1 - Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria’s ecosystem services

AU - Downing, Andrea S.

AU - van Nes, Egbert H.

AU - Balirwa, John S.

AU - Beuving, Joost

AU - Bwathondi, P.O.J.

AU - Chapman, Lauren J.

AU - Cornelissen, Ilse J. M.

AU - Cowx, Iain G.

AU - Goudswaard, Kees P. C.

AU - Hecky, Robert E.

AU - Janse, Jan H.

AU - Janssen, Annette B. G.

AU - Kaufman, Les

AU - Kishe-Machumu, Mary A.

AU - Kolding, Jeppe

AU - Ligtvoet, Willem

AU - Mbabazi, Dismas

AU - Medard, Modesta

AU - Mkumbo, Oliva C.

AU - Mlaponi, Enock

AU - Munyaho, Antony T.

AU - Nagelkerke, Leopold A. J.

AU - Ogutu-Ohwayo, Richard

AU - Ojwang, William O.

AU - Peter, Happy K.

AU - Schindler, Daniel E.

AU - Seehausen, Ole

AU - Sharpe, Diana

AU - Silsbe, Greg M.

AU - Sitoki, Lewis

AU - Tumwebaze, Rhoda

AU - Tweddle, Denis

AU - van de Wolfshaar, Karen E.

AU - van Dijk, Han

AU - van Donk, Ellen

AU - van Rijssel, Jacco C.

AU - van Zwieten, Paul A. M.

AU - Wanink, Jan

AU - Witte, F.

AU - Mooij, Wolf M.

N1 - 5740, AqE

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

AB - East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

KW - eutrophication

KW - feedbacks

KW - fisheries

KW - Lake Victoria

KW - model

KW - multidisciplinary, social-ecological system

KW - sustainability

KW - international

U2 - 10.5751/ES-06965-190431

DO - 10.5751/ES-06965-190431

M3 - Article

SN - 1708-3087

VL - 19

JO - Ecology and Society

JF - Ecology and Society

IS - 4

M1 - 31

ER -

Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria’s ecosystem services

Abstract

Keywords

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NWO - Identifying critical nutrient loadings for Lake Taihu, China, with a dynamic model for integrated water system research

Cite this