Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy

Bryan M. Spears; Martyn N. Futter; Erik Jeppesen; Brian J. Huser; Stephen C. Ives; Thomas A. Davidson; Rita Adrian; David G. Angeler; Sarah J. Burthe; Laurence Carvalho; Francis Daunt; Alena S. Gsell; Dag O. Hessen; Annette B. G. Janssen; Eleanor B. Mackay; Linda May; Heather Moorhouse; Saara Olsen; Martin Søndergaard; Helen J. Woods; Stephen J. Thackeray

doi:10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1

Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy

Bryan M. Spears (Corresponding author), Martyn N. Futter, Erik Jeppesen, Brian J. Huser, Stephen C. Ives, Thomas A. Davidson, Rita Adrian, David G. Angeler, Sarah J. Burthe, Laurence Carvalho, Francis Daunt, Alena S. Gsell, Dag O. Hessen, Annette B. G. Janssen, Eleanor B. Mackay, Linda May, Heather Moorhouse, Saara Olsen, Martin Søndergaard, Helen J. WoodsStephen J. Thackeray

NIOO - Aquatic Ecology (AqE)

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

54 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1616-1624
Journal	Nature Ecology and Evolution
Volume	1
Early online date	16 Oct 2017
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1
Publication status	Published - 2017

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Spears, B. M., Futter, M. N., Jeppesen, E., Huser, B. J., Ives, S. C., Davidson, T. A., Adrian, R., Angeler, D. G., Burthe, S. J., Carvalho, L., Daunt, F., Gsell, A. S., Hessen, D. O., Janssen, A. B. G., Mackay, E. B., May, L., Moorhouse, H., Olsen, S., Søndergaard, M., ... Thackeray, S. J. (2017). Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 1, 1616-1624. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1

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abstract = "There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.",

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author = "Spears, {Bryan M.} and Futter, {Martyn N.} and Erik Jeppesen and Huser, {Brian J.} and Ives, {Stephen C.} and Davidson, {Thomas A.} and Rita Adrian and Angeler, {David G.} and Burthe, {Sarah J.} and Laurence Carvalho and Francis Daunt and Gsell, {Alena S.} and Hessen, {Dag O.} and Janssen, {Annette B. G.} and Mackay, {Eleanor B.} and Linda May and Heather Moorhouse and Saara Olsen and Martin S{\o}ndergaard and Woods, {Helen J.} and Thackeray, {Stephen J.}",

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Spears, BM, Futter, MN, Jeppesen, E, Huser, BJ, Ives, SC, Davidson, TA, Adrian, R, Angeler, DG, Burthe, SJ, Carvalho, L, Daunt, F, Gsell, AS, Hessen, DO, Janssen, ABG, Mackay, EB, May, L, Moorhouse, H, Olsen, S, Søndergaard, M, Woods, HJ & Thackeray, SJ 2017, 'Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy', Nature Ecology and Evolution, vol. 1, pp. 1616-1624. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy

AU - Spears, Bryan M.

AU - Futter, Martyn N.

AU - Jeppesen, Erik

AU - Huser, Brian J.

AU - Ives, Stephen C.

AU - Davidson, Thomas A.

AU - Adrian, Rita

AU - Angeler, David G.

AU - Burthe, Sarah J.

AU - Carvalho, Laurence

AU - Daunt, Francis

AU - Gsell, Alena S.

AU - Hessen, Dag O.

AU - Janssen, Annette B. G.

AU - Mackay, Eleanor B.

AU - May, Linda

AU - Moorhouse, Heather

AU - Olsen, Saara

AU - Søndergaard, Martin

AU - Woods, Helen J.

AU - Thackeray, Stephen J.

N1 - 6389, AqE; Data archiving: no data (review) pdf in NL niet verkrijgbaar

PY - 2017

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N2 - There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.

AB - There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.

KW - international

U2 - 10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1

DO - 10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1

M3 - Article

SN - 2397-334X

VL - 1

SP - 1616

EP - 1624

JO - Nature Ecology and Evolution

JF - Nature Ecology and Evolution

ER -

Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy

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