TY - JOUR
T1 - Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species
AU - Nolet, B.A.
AU - Bauer, S.
AU - Feige, N.
AU - Kokorev, Y.I.
AU - Popov, I.Y.
AU - Ebbinge, B.S.
N1 - Reporting year: 2013
Metis note: 5410; AnE;
Data archiving: data archived at MDA
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - 1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to
study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have
shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing,
and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both
directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions).
2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its
reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis,
covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter
the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by
changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects.
3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical
approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in
breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions
of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory
since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming
abundance and population density on population development.
4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the
breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carryover
effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence
was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of
the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone.
5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting
migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species,
but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory
bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this
may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia).
AB - 1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to
study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have
shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing,
and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both
directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions).
2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its
reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis,
covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter
the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by
changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects.
3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical
approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in
breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions
of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory
since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming
abundance and population density on population development.
4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the
breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carryover
effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence
was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of
the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone.
5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting
migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species,
but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory
bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this
may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia).
KW - international
U2 - 10.1111/1365-2656.12060
DO - 10.1111/1365-2656.12060
M3 - Article
VL - 82
SP - 804
EP - 813
JO - Journal of Animal Ecology
JF - Journal of Animal Ecology
SN - 0021-8790
IS - 4
ER -