Future pathways for the ecological quality of global freshwater ecosystems

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future pathways for the ecological quality of global freshwater ecosystems

AU - Janse, Jan H.

AU - Bakkenes, Michel

AU - Giesen, Paul

AU - Barbarossa, Valerio

AU - Bouwman, Arno

AU - Kok, Marcel T.J.

N1 - Data archiving: no NIOO data

PY - 2026/5

Y1 - 2026/5

N2 - The ecological quality of freshwater ecosystems has substantially decreased globally. This study explores future pathways for these ecosystems, within the SSP2-RCP6.0 scenario projections on climate change, population, economic growth, and consumption, through a global modelling study spanning from 1970 to 2070. An ecology-based ‘High Ambition’ scenario is established, consisting of elements related to land-use and river basin management. This scenario, along with the Baseline and two intermediate scenarios, is modelled by a series of linked global models to assess the effects on freshwater biodiversity intactness, harmful algal blooms, fish habitat suitability, and their contribution to ecosystem services. The results show that globally, the ecological quality and biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems will worsen under the Baseline scenario but only stabilise under the ‘High Ambition’ pathway, as the assumed measures will just neutralise the effects of population growth and economic development. In the boreal zone, overall quality will remain good, while improvements are projected for currently highly affected regions such as Europe, North America, and China in this scenario. However, further deteriorations are expected in Southern Asia, Africa and South America. The ‘High Ambition’ pathway not only positively impacts biodiversity (SDGs 14 and 15), but also contributes to food, water, health and climate resilience goals (SDGs 2, 3, 6, 11, 12 and 13), while considering trade-offs related to energy production and claims on land. Despite uncertainties and model restrictions, this study shows that ecology-based measures are essential, but not sufficient, to prevent a further decline of aquatic ecosystems.

AB - The ecological quality of freshwater ecosystems has substantially decreased globally. This study explores future pathways for these ecosystems, within the SSP2-RCP6.0 scenario projections on climate change, population, economic growth, and consumption, through a global modelling study spanning from 1970 to 2070. An ecology-based ‘High Ambition’ scenario is established, consisting of elements related to land-use and river basin management. This scenario, along with the Baseline and two intermediate scenarios, is modelled by a series of linked global models to assess the effects on freshwater biodiversity intactness, harmful algal blooms, fish habitat suitability, and their contribution to ecosystem services. The results show that globally, the ecological quality and biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems will worsen under the Baseline scenario but only stabilise under the ‘High Ambition’ pathway, as the assumed measures will just neutralise the effects of population growth and economic development. In the boreal zone, overall quality will remain good, while improvements are projected for currently highly affected regions such as Europe, North America, and China in this scenario. However, further deteriorations are expected in Southern Asia, Africa and South America. The ‘High Ambition’ pathway not only positively impacts biodiversity (SDGs 14 and 15), but also contributes to food, water, health and climate resilience goals (SDGs 2, 3, 6, 11, 12 and 13), while considering trade-offs related to energy production and claims on land. Despite uncertainties and model restrictions, this study shows that ecology-based measures are essential, but not sufficient, to prevent a further decline of aquatic ecosystems.

KW - Algae

KW - Biodiversity

KW - Fish

KW - Land-use

KW - Model

KW - NBS

KW - Nutrients

KW - River basins

KW - SDGs

U2 - 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104380

DO - 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104380

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105036880975

SN - 1462-9011

VL - 179

JO - Environmental Science and Policy

JF - Environmental Science and Policy

M1 - 104380

ER -