Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Henrique M. Pereira; Inês S. Martins; Isabel M. D. Rosa; HyeJin Kim; Paul Leadley; Alexander Popp; Detlef P. van Vuuren; George Hurtt; Luise Quoss; Almut Arneth; Daniele Baisero; Michel Bakkenes; Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer; Louise Chini; Moreno Di Marco; Simon Ferrier; Shinichiro Fujimori; Carlos A. Guerra; Michael Harfoot; Thomas D. Harwood; Tomoko Hasegawa; Vanessa Haverd; Petr Havlík; Stefanie Hellweg; Jelle P. Hilbers; Samantha L. L. Hill; Akiko Hirata; Andrew J. Hoskins; Florian Humpenöder; Jan H. Janse; Walter Jetz; Justin A. Johnson; Andreas Krause; David Leclère; Tetsuya Matsui; Johan R. Meijer; Cory Merow; Michael Obersteiner; Haruka Ohashi; Adriana De Palma; Benjamin Poulter; Andy Purvis; Benjamin Quesada; Carlo Rondinini; Aafke M. Schipper; Josef Settele; Richard Sharp; Elke Stehfest; Bernardo B. N. Strassburg; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Matthew V. Talluto; Wilfried Thuiller; Nicolas Titeux; Piero Visconti; Christopher Ware; Florian Wolf; Rob Alkemade

doi:10.1126/science.adn3441

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Henrique M. Pereira^* (Corresponding author), Inês S. Martins, Isabel M. D. Rosa, HyeJin Kim, Paul Leadley, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, George Hurtt, Luise Quoss, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Michel Bakkenes, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Moreno Di Marco, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Carlos A. Guerra, Michael Harfoot, Thomas D. HarwoodTomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Jelle P. Hilbers, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Florian Humpenöder, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Tetsuya Matsui, Johan R. Meijer, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Adriana De Palma, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Josef Settele, Richard Sharp, Elke Stehfest, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Matthew V. Talluto, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, Rob Alkemade

^*Corresponding author for this work

NIOO - Aquatic Ecology (AqE)

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

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Abstract

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	458-465
Number of pages	8
Journal	Science
Volume	384
Issue number	6694
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3441
Publication status	Published - 26 Apr 2024

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Pereira et al 2024Final published version, 4.61 MBLicence: Taverne

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Pereira, H. M., Martins, I. S., Rosa, I. M. D., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C. A., Harfoot, M., ... Alkemade, R. (2024). Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. Science, 384(6694), 458-465. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3441

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title = "Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050",

abstract = "Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.",

author = "Pereira, {Henrique M.} and Martins, {In{\^e}s S.} and Rosa, {Isabel M. D.} and HyeJin Kim and Paul Leadley and Alexander Popp and {van Vuuren}, {Detlef P.} and George Hurtt and Luise Quoss and Almut Arneth and Daniele Baisero and Michel Bakkenes and Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer and Louise Chini and {Di Marco}, Moreno and Simon Ferrier and Shinichiro Fujimori and Guerra, {Carlos A.} and Michael Harfoot and Harwood, {Thomas D.} and Tomoko Hasegawa and Vanessa Haverd and Petr Havl{\'i}k and Stefanie Hellweg and Hilbers, {Jelle P.} and Hill, {Samantha L. L.} and Akiko Hirata and Hoskins, {Andrew J.} and Florian Humpen{\"o}der and Janse, {Jan H.} and Walter Jetz and Johnson, {Justin A.} and Andreas Krause and David Lecl{\`e}re and Tetsuya Matsui and Meijer, {Johan R.} and Cory Merow and Michael Obersteiner and Haruka Ohashi and {De Palma}, Adriana and Benjamin Poulter and Andy Purvis and Benjamin Quesada and Carlo Rondinini and Schipper, {Aafke M.} and Josef Settele and Richard Sharp and Elke Stehfest and Strassburg, {Bernardo B. N.} and Kiyoshi Takahashi and Talluto, {Matthew V.} and Wilfried Thuiller and Nicolas Titeux and Piero Visconti and Christopher Ware and Florian Wolf and Rob Alkemade",

note = "Data archiving: ask Jan h janse / sent mail 18/07/2024",

year = "2024",

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doi = "10.1126/science.adn3441",

language = "English",

volume = "384",

pages = "458--465",

journal = "Science",

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publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)",

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Pereira, HM, Martins, IS, Rosa, IMD, Kim, H, Leadley, P, Popp, A, van Vuuren, DP, Hurtt, G, Quoss, L, Arneth, A, Baisero, D, Bakkenes, M, Chaplin-Kramer, R, Chini, L, Di Marco, M, Ferrier, S, Fujimori, S, Guerra, CA, Harfoot, M, Harwood, TD, Hasegawa, T, Haverd, V, Havlík, P, Hellweg, S, Hilbers, JP, Hill, SLL, Hirata, A, Hoskins, AJ, Humpenöder, F, Janse, JH, Jetz, W, Johnson, JA, Krause, A, Leclère, D, Matsui, T, Meijer, JR, Merow, C, Obersteiner, M, Ohashi, H, De Palma, A, Poulter, B, Purvis, A, Quesada, B, Rondinini, C, Schipper, AM, Settele, J, Sharp, R, Stehfest, E, Strassburg, BBN, Takahashi, K, Talluto, MV, Thuiller, W, Titeux, N, Visconti, P, Ware, C, Wolf, F & Alkemade, R 2024, 'Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050', Science, vol. 384, no. 6694, pp. 458-465. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3441

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

AU - Pereira, Henrique M.

AU - Martins, Inês S.

AU - Rosa, Isabel M. D.

AU - Kim, HyeJin

AU - Leadley, Paul

AU - Popp, Alexander

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.

AU - Hurtt, George

AU - Quoss, Luise

AU - Arneth, Almut

AU - Baisero, Daniele

AU - Bakkenes, Michel

AU - Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca

AU - Chini, Louise

AU - Di Marco, Moreno

AU - Ferrier, Simon

AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro

AU - Guerra, Carlos A.

AU - Harfoot, Michael

AU - Harwood, Thomas D.

AU - Hasegawa, Tomoko

AU - Haverd, Vanessa

AU - Havlík, Petr

AU - Hellweg, Stefanie

AU - Hilbers, Jelle P.

AU - Hill, Samantha L. L.

AU - Hirata, Akiko

AU - Hoskins, Andrew J.

AU - Humpenöder, Florian

AU - Janse, Jan H.

AU - Jetz, Walter

AU - Johnson, Justin A.

AU - Krause, Andreas

AU - Leclère, David

AU - Matsui, Tetsuya

AU - Meijer, Johan R.

AU - Merow, Cory

AU - Obersteiner, Michael

AU - Ohashi, Haruka

AU - De Palma, Adriana

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Purvis, Andy

AU - Quesada, Benjamin

AU - Rondinini, Carlo

AU - Schipper, Aafke M.

AU - Settele, Josef

AU - Sharp, Richard

AU - Stehfest, Elke

AU - Strassburg, Bernardo B. N.

AU - Takahashi, Kiyoshi

AU - Talluto, Matthew V.

AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

AU - Titeux, Nicolas

AU - Visconti, Piero

AU - Ware, Christopher

AU - Wolf, Florian

AU - Alkemade, Rob

N1 - Data archiving: ask Jan h janse / sent mail 18/07/2024

PY - 2024/4/26

Y1 - 2024/4/26

N2 - Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

AB - Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

U2 - 10.1126/science.adn3441

DO - 10.1126/science.adn3441

M3 - Article

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 384

SP - 458

EP - 465

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6694

ER -

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Abstract

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