Implications of demographic change for vocational education and training in the EU: European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop)

P. Ekamper, P. Lipinska, M. Tessaring

Research output: Book/ReportBookScientific


This report presents short-, medium- and longterm projections (with focus on the period up to 2030) of the future number of vocational education and training students and graduates, aged 15-24, in the 27 Member States of the European Union. The analysis is based on Eurostat population projections and, assuming unchanged participation and graduation rates, provides insight into the impact of pure demographic trends. The analysis reveals a falling number of young people in vocational education and training for several population scenarios. In the ‘baseline scenario’, the number of vocational education and training students at secondary, post-secondary and tertiary level decreases by more than two million between 2005 and 2030, with particularly significant decline at upper secondary level. The number of vocational education and training graduates is expected to decrease by 600 000 in the same period. The report looks at the implications of these developments on vocational education and training teachers and trainers, explores to what extent contraction of training systems capacity is likely to take place and discusses consequences for the labour market. Lastly, different policy options to address identified challenges are proposed.
Original languageUndefined
Place of PublicationLuxembourg
PublisherOffice for Official Publications of the European Communities
Number of pages123
ISBN (Print)978 92 8960583 0
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Publication series

NameCedefop panorama series

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