La microsimulation dans les projections de population

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodicalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

A dynamic microsimulation model is presented to generate individual life histories that are consistent with cohort projections produced by the (multistate) cohort-component model. The microsimulation model can incorporate individual differences the cohort-component model cannot handle. The differences are outcomes of systematic factors and random factors. The paper focuses on random factors. The microsimulation model uses a continuous-time multistate cohort-survival model and random draws from piecewise exponential waiting time distributions. If the parameters of the distributions are the transition intensities of the cohort-survival model, then the individual life histories are consistent with cohort projections. The life histories provide insights in population dynamics that cannot be obtained from the cohort-component model.
Original languageUndefined
Pages (from-to)267-297
JournalCahiers Québécois de Démographie
Volume40
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2011

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