Managing uncertainty in soil carbon feedbacks to climate change

M.A. Bradford; W.R. Wieder; G.B. Bonan; N. Fierer; P.A. Raymond; Thomas W. Crowther

doi:10.1038/nclimate3071

Managing uncertainty in soil carbon feedbacks to climate change

M.A. Bradford, W.R. Wieder, G.B. Bonan, N. Fierer, P.A. Raymond, Thomas W. Crowther

NIOO - Terrestrial Ecology (TE)

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Abstract

Planetary warming may be exacerbated if it accelerates loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere. This carbon-cycle–climate feedback is included in climate projections. Yet, despite ancillary data supporting a positive feedback, there is limited evidence for soil carbon loss under warming. The low confidence engendered in feedback projections is reduced further by the common representation in models of an outdated knowledge of soil carbon turnover. 'Model-knowledge integration' — representing in models an advanced understanding of soil carbon stabilization — is the first step to build confidence. This will inform experiments that further increase confidence by resolving competing mechanisms that most influence projected soil-carbon stocks. Improving feedback projections is an imperative for establishing greenhouse gas emission targets that limit climate change.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	751-758
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3071
Publication status	Published - 2016

Keywords

international

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EU - Marie Curie: Thomas Crowther
Crowther, T.
01/06/2015 → 23/02/2018
Project: Research

Cite this

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title = "Managing uncertainty in soil carbon feedbacks to climate change",

abstract = "Planetary warming may be exacerbated if it accelerates loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere. This carbon-cycle–climate feedback is included in climate projections. Yet, despite ancillary data supporting a positive feedback, there is limited evidence for soil carbon loss under warming. The low confidence engendered in feedback projections is reduced further by the common representation in models of an outdated knowledge of soil carbon turnover. 'Model-knowledge integration' — representing in models an advanced understanding of soil carbon stabilization — is the first step to build confidence. This will inform experiments that further increase confidence by resolving competing mechanisms that most influence projected soil-carbon stocks. Improving feedback projections is an imperative for establishing greenhouse gas emission targets that limit climate change.",

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author = "M.A. Bradford and W.R. Wieder and G.B. Bonan and N. Fierer and P.A. Raymond and Crowther, {Thomas W.}",

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T1 - Managing uncertainty in soil carbon feedbacks to climate change

AU - Bradford, M.A.

AU - Wieder, W.R.

AU - Bonan, G.B.

AU - Fierer, N.

AU - Raymond, P.A.

AU - Crowther, Thomas W.

N1 - 6126, TE; Data archiving: no data (review)

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - Planetary warming may be exacerbated if it accelerates loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere. This carbon-cycle–climate feedback is included in climate projections. Yet, despite ancillary data supporting a positive feedback, there is limited evidence for soil carbon loss under warming. The low confidence engendered in feedback projections is reduced further by the common representation in models of an outdated knowledge of soil carbon turnover. 'Model-knowledge integration' — representing in models an advanced understanding of soil carbon stabilization — is the first step to build confidence. This will inform experiments that further increase confidence by resolving competing mechanisms that most influence projected soil-carbon stocks. Improving feedback projections is an imperative for establishing greenhouse gas emission targets that limit climate change.

AB - Planetary warming may be exacerbated if it accelerates loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere. This carbon-cycle–climate feedback is included in climate projections. Yet, despite ancillary data supporting a positive feedback, there is limited evidence for soil carbon loss under warming. The low confidence engendered in feedback projections is reduced further by the common representation in models of an outdated knowledge of soil carbon turnover. 'Model-knowledge integration' — representing in models an advanced understanding of soil carbon stabilization — is the first step to build confidence. This will inform experiments that further increase confidence by resolving competing mechanisms that most influence projected soil-carbon stocks. Improving feedback projections is an imperative for establishing greenhouse gas emission targets that limit climate change.

KW - international

U2 - 10.1038/nclimate3071

DO - 10.1038/nclimate3071

M3 - Article

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 6

SP - 751

EP - 758

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

ER -

Managing uncertainty in soil carbon feedbacks to climate change

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EU - Marie Curie: Thomas Crowther

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