Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

T. W. Crowther; K. E. O. Todd-Brown; C. W. Rowe; W. R. Wieder; J. C. Carey; M. B. Machmuller; B. L. Snoek; S. Fang; G. Zhou; S. D. Allison; J. M. Blair; S. D. Bridgham; A. J. Burton; Y. Carrillo; P. B. Reich; J. S. Clark; A. T. Classen; F. A. Dijkstra; B. Elberling; B. A. Emmett; M. Estiarte; S. D. Frey; J. Guo; J. Harte; L. Jiang; B. R. Johnson; G. Kröel-Dulay; K. S. Larsen; H. Laudon; J. M. Lavallee; Y. Luo; M. Lupascu; L. N. Ma; S. Marhan; A. Michelsen; J. Mohan; S. Niu; E. Pendall; J. Peñuelas; L. Pfeifer-Meister; C. Poll; S. Reinsch; L. L. Reynolds; I. K. Schmidt; S. Sistla; N. W. Sokol; P. H. Templer; K. K. Treseder; J. M. Welker; M. A. Bradford

doi:10.1038/nature20150

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

T. W. Crowther, K. E. O. Todd-Brown, C. W. Rowe, W. R. Wieder, J. C. Carey, M. B. Machmuller, B. L. Snoek, S. Fang, G. Zhou, S. D. Allison, J. M. Blair, S. D. Bridgham, A. J. Burton, Y. Carrillo, P. B. Reich, J. S. Clark, A. T. Classen, F. A. Dijkstra, B. Elberling, B. A. EmmettM. Estiarte, S. D. Frey, J. Guo, J. Harte, L. Jiang, B. R. Johnson, G. Kröel-Dulay, K. S. Larsen, H. Laudon, J. M. Lavallee, Y. Luo, M. Lupascu, L. N. Ma, S. Marhan, A. Michelsen, J. Mohan, S. Niu, E. Pendall, J. Peñuelas, L. Pfeifer-Meister, C. Poll, S. Reinsch, L. L. Reynolds, I. K. Schmidt, S. Sistla, N. W. Sokol, P. H. Templer, K. K. Treseder, J. M. Welker, M. A. Bradford

NIOO - Terrestrial Ecology (TE)

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Abstract

The majority of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming1, 2, 3, 4. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil5, 6, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12–17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period7, 8. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon–climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	104-108
Number of pages	5
Journal	Nature
Volume	540
Issue number	7631
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20150
Publication status	Published - 01 Dec 2016

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Crowther, T. W. (Creator), DataverseNL, 03 Mar 2017

http://hdl.handle.net/10411/9WOZTN

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Scientists have long feared this ‘feedback’ to the climate system. Now they say it’s happening

Tom Crowther

30/11/2016

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Crowther, T. W., Todd-Brown, K. E. O., Rowe, C. W., Wieder, W. R., Carey, J. C., Machmuller, M. B., Snoek, B. L., Fang, S., Zhou, G., Allison, S. D., Blair, J. M., Bridgham, S. D., Burton, A. J., Carrillo, Y., Reich, P. B., Clark, J. S., Classen, A. T., Dijkstra, F. A., Elberling, B., ... Bradford, M. A. (2016). Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming. Nature, 540(7631), 104-108. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20150

Crowther, T. W. ; Todd-Brown, K. E. O. ; Rowe, C. W. ; Wieder, W. R. ; Carey, J. C. ; Machmuller, M. B. ; Snoek, B. L. ; Fang, S. ; Zhou, G. ; Allison, S. D. ; Blair, J. M. ; Bridgham, S. D. ; Burton, A. J. ; Carrillo, Y. ; Reich, P. B. ; Clark, J. S. ; Classen, A. T. ; Dijkstra, F. A. ; Elberling, B. ; Emmett, B. A. ; Estiarte, M. ; Frey, S. D. ; Guo, J. ; Harte, J. ; Jiang, L. ; Johnson, B. R. ; Kröel-Dulay, G. ; Larsen, K. S. ; Laudon, H. ; Lavallee, J. M. ; Luo, Y. ; Lupascu, M. ; Ma, L. N. ; Marhan, S. ; Michelsen, A. ; Mohan, J. ; Niu, S. ; Pendall, E. ; Peñuelas, J. ; Pfeifer-Meister, L. ; Poll, C. ; Reinsch, S. ; Reynolds, L. L. ; Schmidt, I. K. ; Sistla, S. ; Sokol, N. W. ; Templer, P. H. ; Treseder, K. K. ; Welker, J. M. ; Bradford, M. A. / Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming. In: Nature. 2016 ; Vol. 540, No. 7631. pp. 104-108.

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title = "Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming",

abstract = "The majority of the Earth{\textquoteright}s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming1, 2, 3, 4. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil5, 6, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12–17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period7, 8. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon–climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.",

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author = "Crowther, {T. W.} and Todd-Brown, {K. E. O.} and Rowe, {C. W.} and Wieder, {W. R.} and Carey, {J. C.} and Machmuller, {M. B.} and Snoek, {B. L.} and S. Fang and G. Zhou and Allison, {S. D.} and Blair, {J. M.} and Bridgham, {S. D.} and Burton, {A. J.} and Y. Carrillo and Reich, {P. B.} and Clark, {J. S.} and Classen, {A. T.} and Dijkstra, {F. A.} and B. Elberling and Emmett, {B. A.} and M. Estiarte and Frey, {S. D.} and J. Guo and J. Harte and L. Jiang and Johnson, {B. R.} and G. Kr{\"o}el-Dulay and Larsen, {K. S.} and H. Laudon and Lavallee, {J. M.} and Y. Luo and M. Lupascu and Ma, {L. N.} and S. Marhan and A. Michelsen and J. Mohan and S. Niu and E. Pendall and J. Pe{\~n}uelas and L. Pfeifer-Meister and C. Poll and S. Reinsch and Reynolds, {L. L.} and Schmidt, {I. K.} and S. Sistla and Sokol, {N. W.} and Templer, {P. H.} and Treseder, {K. K.} and Welker, {J. M.} and Bradford, {M. A.}",

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Crowther, TW, Todd-Brown, KEO, Rowe, CW, Wieder, WR, Carey, JC, Machmuller, MB, Snoek, BL, Fang, S, Zhou, G, Allison, SD, Blair, JM, Bridgham, SD, Burton, AJ, Carrillo, Y, Reich, PB, Clark, JS, Classen, AT, Dijkstra, FA, Elberling, B, Emmett, BA, Estiarte, M, Frey, SD, Guo, J, Harte, J, Jiang, L, Johnson, BR, Kröel-Dulay, G, Larsen, KS, Laudon, H, Lavallee, JM, Luo, Y, Lupascu, M, Ma, LN, Marhan, S, Michelsen, A, Mohan, J, Niu, S, Pendall, E, Peñuelas, J, Pfeifer-Meister, L, Poll, C, Reinsch, S, Reynolds, LL, Schmidt, IK, Sistla, S, Sokol, NW, Templer, PH, Treseder, KK, Welker, JM & Bradford, MA 2016, 'Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming', Nature, vol. 540, no. 7631, pp. 104-108. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20150

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming. / Crowther, T. W.; Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Rowe, C. W.; Wieder, W. R.; Carey, J. C.; Machmuller, M. B.; Snoek, B. L.; Fang, S.; Zhou, G.; Allison, S. D.; Blair, J. M.; Bridgham, S. D.; Burton, A. J.; Carrillo, Y.; Reich, P. B.; Clark, J. S.; Classen, A. T.; Dijkstra, F. A.; Elberling, B.; Emmett, B. A.; Estiarte, M.; Frey, S. D.; Guo, J.; Harte, J.; Jiang, L.; Johnson, B. R.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Larsen, K. S.; Laudon, H.; Lavallee, J. M.; Luo, Y.; Lupascu, M.; Ma, L. N.; Marhan, S.; Michelsen, A.; Mohan, J.; Niu, S.; Pendall, E.; Peñuelas, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Poll, C.; Reinsch, S.; Reynolds, L. L.; Schmidt, I. K.; Sistla, S.; Sokol, N. W.; Templer, P. H.; Treseder, K. K.; Welker, J. M.; Bradford, M. A.

In: Nature, Vol. 540, No. 7631, 01.12.2016, p. 104-108.

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

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AU - Crowther, T. W.

AU - Todd-Brown, K. E. O.

AU - Rowe, C. W.

AU - Wieder, W. R.

AU - Carey, J. C.

AU - Machmuller, M. B.

AU - Snoek, B. L.

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AU - Zhou, G.

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AU - Luo, Y.

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AU - Poll, C.

AU - Reinsch, S.

AU - Reynolds, L. L.

AU - Schmidt, I. K.

AU - Sistla, S.

AU - Sokol, N. W.

AU - Templer, P. H.

AU - Treseder, K. K.

AU - Welker, J. M.

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PY - 2016/12/1

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N2 - The majority of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming1, 2, 3, 4. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil5, 6, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12–17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period7, 8. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon–climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

AB - The majority of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming1, 2, 3, 4. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil5, 6, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12–17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period7, 8. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon–climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

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