Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl

Xin Wang; Lei Cao; Anthony D. Fox; Richard Fuller; Larry Griffin; Carl Mitchell; Yunlin Zhao; Oun-Kyong Moon; David Cabot; Zhenggang Xu; Nyambayar Batbayar; Andrea Kölzsch; Henk P. van der Jeugd; Jesper Madsen; Liding Chen; Ran Nathan

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09971-8

Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl

Xin Wang, Lei Cao (Corresponding author), Anthony D. Fox, Richard Fuller, Larry Griffin, Carl Mitchell, Yunlin Zhao, Oun-Kyong Moon, David Cabot, Zhenggang Xu, Nyambayar Batbayar, Andrea Kölzsch, Henk P. van der Jeugd, Jesper Madsen, Liding Chen, Ran Nathan (Corresponding author)

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Abstract

Tracking seasonally changing resources is regarded as a widespread proximate mechanism underpinning animal migration. Migrating herbivores, for example, are hypothesized to track seasonal foliage dynamics over large spatial scales. Previous investigations of this green wave hypothesis involved few species and limited geographical extent, and used conventional correlation that cannot disentangle alternative correlated effects. Here, we introduce stochastic simulations to test this hypothesis using 222 individual spring migration episodes of 14 populations of ten species of geese, swans and dabbling ducks throughout Europe, East Asia, and North America. We find that the green wave cannot be considered a ubiquitous driver of herbivorous waterfowl spring migration, as it explains observed migration patterns of only a few grazing populations in specific regions. We suggest that ecological barriers and particularly human disturbance likely constrain the capacity of herbivorous waterfowl to track the green wave in some regions, highlighting key challenges in conserving migratory birds.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2187
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	10
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09971-8
Publication status	Published - 16 May 2019

Keywords

international
Animals
Stochastic Processes
Models, Biological
Europe
Animal Migration/physiology
Geese/physiology
Seasons
Ducks/physiology
Far East
North America
Herbivory/physiology

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6765_WangFinal published version, 1.07 MBLicence: CC BY

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Wang, X., Cao, L., Fox, A. D., Fuller, R., Griffin, L., Mitchell, C., Zhao, Y., Moon, O-K., Cabot, D., Xu, Z., Batbayar, N., Kölzsch, A., van der Jeugd, H. P., Madsen, J., Chen, L., & Nathan, R. (2019). Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl. Nature Communications, 10(1), 2187. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09971-8

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title = "Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl",

abstract = "Tracking seasonally changing resources is regarded as a widespread proximate mechanism underpinning animal migration. Migrating herbivores, for example, are hypothesized to track seasonal foliage dynamics over large spatial scales. Previous investigations of this green wave hypothesis involved few species and limited geographical extent, and used conventional correlation that cannot disentangle alternative correlated effects. Here, we introduce stochastic simulations to test this hypothesis using 222 individual spring migration episodes of 14 populations of ten species of geese, swans and dabbling ducks throughout Europe, East Asia, and North America. We find that the green wave cannot be considered a ubiquitous driver of herbivorous waterfowl spring migration, as it explains observed migration patterns of only a few grazing populations in specific regions. We suggest that ecological barriers and particularly human disturbance likely constrain the capacity of herbivorous waterfowl to track the green wave in some regions, highlighting key challenges in conserving migratory birds.",

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author = "Xin Wang and Lei Cao and Fox, {Anthony D.} and Richard Fuller and Larry Griffin and Carl Mitchell and Yunlin Zhao and Oun-Kyong Moon and David Cabot and Zhenggang Xu and Nyambayar Batbayar and Andrea K{\"o}lzsch and {van der Jeugd}, {Henk P.} and Jesper Madsen and Liding Chen and Ran Nathan",

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year = "2019",

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Wang, X, Cao, L, Fox, AD, Fuller, R, Griffin, L, Mitchell, C, Zhao, Y, Moon, O-K, Cabot, D, Xu, Z, Batbayar, N, Kölzsch, A, van der Jeugd, HP, Madsen, J, Chen, L & Nathan, R 2019, 'Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl', Nature Communications, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 2187. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09971-8

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T1 - Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl

AU - Wang, Xin

AU - Cao, Lei

AU - Fox, Anthony D.

AU - Fuller, Richard

AU - Griffin, Larry

AU - Mitchell, Carl

AU - Zhao, Yunlin

AU - Moon, Oun-Kyong

AU - Cabot, David

AU - Xu, Zhenggang

AU - Batbayar, Nyambayar

AU - Kölzsch, Andrea

AU - van der Jeugd, Henk P.

AU - Madsen, Jesper

AU - Chen, Liding

AU - Nathan, Ran

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N2 - Tracking seasonally changing resources is regarded as a widespread proximate mechanism underpinning animal migration. Migrating herbivores, for example, are hypothesized to track seasonal foliage dynamics over large spatial scales. Previous investigations of this green wave hypothesis involved few species and limited geographical extent, and used conventional correlation that cannot disentangle alternative correlated effects. Here, we introduce stochastic simulations to test this hypothesis using 222 individual spring migration episodes of 14 populations of ten species of geese, swans and dabbling ducks throughout Europe, East Asia, and North America. We find that the green wave cannot be considered a ubiquitous driver of herbivorous waterfowl spring migration, as it explains observed migration patterns of only a few grazing populations in specific regions. We suggest that ecological barriers and particularly human disturbance likely constrain the capacity of herbivorous waterfowl to track the green wave in some regions, highlighting key challenges in conserving migratory birds.

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KW - Stochastic Processes

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KW - Seasons

KW - Ducks/physiology

KW - Far East

KW - North America

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VL - 10

SP - 2187

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

ER -

Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl

Abstract

Keywords

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