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Strong artificial selection in the wild results in predicted small evolutionary change. / Postma, E.; Visser, J.; Van Noordwijk, A.J.

In: Journal of Evolutionary Biology, Vol. 20, No. 5, 2007, p. 1823-1832.

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@article{3a52173423a04831af191f620c37b91d,
title = "Strong artificial selection in the wild results in predicted small evolutionary change",
abstract = "Estimates of genetic variation and selection allow for quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, at least in controlled laboratory experiments. Natural populations are, however, different in many ways, and natural selection on heritable traits does not always result in phenotypic change. To test whether we were able to predict the evolutionary dynamics of a complex trait measured in a natural, heterogeneous environment, we performed, over an 8-year period, a two-way selection experiment on clutch size in a subdivided island population of great tits (Parus major). Despite strong artificial selection, there was no clear evidence for evolutionary change at the phenotypic level. Environmentally induced differences in clutch size among years are, however, large and can mask evolutionary changes. Indeed, genetic changes in clutch size, inferred from a statistical model, did not deviate systematically from those predicted. Although this shows that estimates of genetic variation and selection can indeed provide quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, also in the wild, it also emphasizes that demonstrating evolution in wild populations is difficult, and that the interpretation of phenotypic trends requires great care.",
author = "E. Postma and J. Visser and {Van Noordwijk}, A.J.",
note = "Reporting year: 2007 Metis note: 4098;CTE; PVD; file:///C:/pdfs/Pdfs2007/Postma_ea_4098.pdf",
year = "2007",
doi = "10.1111/j.1420-9101.2007.01379.x",
language = "English",
volume = "20",
pages = "1823--1832",
journal = "Journal of Evolutionary Biology",
issn = "1010-061X",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "5",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Strong artificial selection in the wild results in predicted small evolutionary change

AU - Postma, E.

AU - Visser, J.

AU - Van Noordwijk, A.J.

N1 - Reporting year: 2007 Metis note: 4098;CTE; PVD; file:///C:/pdfs/Pdfs2007/Postma_ea_4098.pdf

PY - 2007

Y1 - 2007

N2 - Estimates of genetic variation and selection allow for quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, at least in controlled laboratory experiments. Natural populations are, however, different in many ways, and natural selection on heritable traits does not always result in phenotypic change. To test whether we were able to predict the evolutionary dynamics of a complex trait measured in a natural, heterogeneous environment, we performed, over an 8-year period, a two-way selection experiment on clutch size in a subdivided island population of great tits (Parus major). Despite strong artificial selection, there was no clear evidence for evolutionary change at the phenotypic level. Environmentally induced differences in clutch size among years are, however, large and can mask evolutionary changes. Indeed, genetic changes in clutch size, inferred from a statistical model, did not deviate systematically from those predicted. Although this shows that estimates of genetic variation and selection can indeed provide quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, also in the wild, it also emphasizes that demonstrating evolution in wild populations is difficult, and that the interpretation of phenotypic trends requires great care.

AB - Estimates of genetic variation and selection allow for quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, at least in controlled laboratory experiments. Natural populations are, however, different in many ways, and natural selection on heritable traits does not always result in phenotypic change. To test whether we were able to predict the evolutionary dynamics of a complex trait measured in a natural, heterogeneous environment, we performed, over an 8-year period, a two-way selection experiment on clutch size in a subdivided island population of great tits (Parus major). Despite strong artificial selection, there was no clear evidence for evolutionary change at the phenotypic level. Environmentally induced differences in clutch size among years are, however, large and can mask evolutionary changes. Indeed, genetic changes in clutch size, inferred from a statistical model, did not deviate systematically from those predicted. Although this shows that estimates of genetic variation and selection can indeed provide quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, also in the wild, it also emphasizes that demonstrating evolution in wild populations is difficult, and that the interpretation of phenotypic trends requires great care.

U2 - 10.1111/j.1420-9101.2007.01379.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1420-9101.2007.01379.x

M3 - Article

VL - 20

SP - 1823

EP - 1832

JO - Journal of Evolutionary Biology

JF - Journal of Evolutionary Biology

SN - 1010-061X

IS - 5

ER -

ID: 366799