Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

Rémi Fay; Sandra Hamel; Martijn van de Pol; Jean-Michel Gaillard; Nigel G. Yoccoz; Paul Acker; Matthieu Authier; Benjamin Larue; Christie Le Coeur; Kaitlin R. Macdonald; Alex Nicol-Harper; Christophe Barbraud; Christophe Bonenfant; Dirk H. Van Vuren; Emmanuelle Cam; Karine Delord; Marlène Gamelon; Maria Moiron; Fanie Pelletier; Jay Rotella; Celine Teplitsky; Marcel E. Visser; Caitlin P. Wells; Nathaniel T. Wheelwright; Stéphanie Jenouvrier; Bernt-Erik Sæther

doi:10.1111/ele.14026

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

Rémi Fay^* (Corresponding author), Sandra Hamel, Martijn van de Pol, Jean-Michel Gaillard, Nigel G. Yoccoz, Paul Acker, Matthieu Authier, Benjamin Larue, Christie Le Coeur, Kaitlin R. Macdonald, Alex Nicol-Harper, Christophe Barbraud, Christophe Bonenfant, Dirk H. Van Vuren, Emmanuelle Cam, Karine Delord, Marlène Gamelon, Maria Moiron, Fanie Pelletier, Jay RotellaCeline Teplitsky, Marcel E. Visser, Caitlin P. Wells, Nathaniel T. Wheelwright, Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Bernt-Erik Sæther

^*Corresponding author for this work

NIOO - Animal Ecology (AnE)

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

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Abstract

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species? life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1640-1654
Number of pages	15
Journal	Ecology Letters
Volume	25
Issue number	7
Early online date	2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14026
Publication status	Published - 2022

Keywords

capture-recapture
demographic correlation
demography
environmental stochasticity
slow-fast continuum
stochastic population dynamics
temporal covariation

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7447_FayFinal published version, 2.19 MBLicence: CC BY

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Fay, R., Hamel, S., van de Pol, M., Gaillard, J.-M., Yoccoz, N. G., Acker, P., Authier, M., Larue, B., Le Coeur, C., Macdonald, K. R., Nicol-Harper, A., Barbraud, C., Bonenfant, C., Van Vuren, D. H., Cam, E., Delord, K., Gamelon, M., Moiron, M., Pelletier, F., ... Sæther, B.-E. (2022). Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species. Ecology Letters, 25(7), 1640-1654. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14026

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title = "Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species",

abstract = "Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species? life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.",

keywords = "capture-recapture, demographic correlation, demography, environmental stochasticity, slow-fast continuum, stochastic population dynamics, temporal covariation",

author = "R{\'e}mi Fay and Sandra Hamel and {van de Pol}, Martijn and Jean-Michel Gaillard and Yoccoz, {Nigel G.} and Paul Acker and Matthieu Authier and Benjamin Larue and {Le Coeur}, Christie and Macdonald, {Kaitlin R.} and Alex Nicol-Harper and Christophe Barbraud and Christophe Bonenfant and {Van Vuren}, {Dirk H.} and Emmanuelle Cam and Karine Delord and Marl{\`e}ne Gamelon and Maria Moiron and Fanie Pelletier and Jay Rotella and Celine Teplitsky and Visser, {Marcel E.} and Wells, {Caitlin P.} and Wheelwright, {Nathaniel T.} and St{\'e}phanie Jenouvrier and Bernt-Erik S{\ae}ther",

note = "7447, AnE",

year = "2022",

doi = "10.1111/ele.14026",

language = "English",

volume = "25",

pages = "1640--1654",

journal = "Ecology Letters",

issn = "1461-023X",

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Fay, R, Hamel, S, van de Pol, M, Gaillard, J-M, Yoccoz, NG, Acker, P, Authier, M, Larue, B, Le Coeur, C, Macdonald, KR, Nicol-Harper, A, Barbraud, C, Bonenfant, C, Van Vuren, DH, Cam, E, Delord, K, Gamelon, M, Moiron, M, Pelletier, F, Rotella, J, Teplitsky, C, Visser, ME, Wells, CP, Wheelwright, NT, Jenouvrier, S & Sæther, B-E 2022, 'Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species', Ecology Letters, vol. 25, no. 7, pp. 1640-1654. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14026

TY - JOUR

T1 - Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

AU - Fay, Rémi

AU - Hamel, Sandra

AU - van de Pol, Martijn

AU - Gaillard, Jean-Michel

AU - Yoccoz, Nigel G.

AU - Acker, Paul

AU - Authier, Matthieu

AU - Larue, Benjamin

AU - Le Coeur, Christie

AU - Macdonald, Kaitlin R.

AU - Nicol-Harper, Alex

AU - Barbraud, Christophe

AU - Bonenfant, Christophe

AU - Van Vuren, Dirk H.

AU - Cam, Emmanuelle

AU - Delord, Karine

AU - Gamelon, Marlène

AU - Moiron, Maria

AU - Pelletier, Fanie

AU - Rotella, Jay

AU - Teplitsky, Celine

AU - Visser, Marcel E.

AU - Wells, Caitlin P.

AU - Wheelwright, Nathaniel T.

AU - Jenouvrier, Stéphanie

AU - Sæther, Bernt-Erik

N1 - 7447, AnE

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species? life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

AB - Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species? life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

KW - capture-recapture

KW - demographic correlation

KW - demography

KW - environmental stochasticity

KW - slow-fast continuum

KW - stochastic population dynamics

KW - temporal covariation

U2 - 10.1111/ele.14026

DO - 10.1111/ele.14026

M3 - Article

C2 - 35610546

SN - 1461-023X

VL - 25

SP - 1640

EP - 1654

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

IS - 7

ER -

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

Abstract

Keywords

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