The future of algal blooms in lakes globally is in our hands

Maddalena Tigli* (Corresponding author), Mirjam P. Bak* (Corresponding author), Jan H. Janse, Maryna Strokal, Annette B.G. Janssen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodicalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Lakes are fundamental to society and nature, yet they are currently exposed to excessive nutrients and climate change, resulting in algal blooms. In the future, this may change, but how and where still needs more scientific attention. Here, we explore future trends in algal blooms in lakes globally for >3500 ‘representative lakes’ for the year 2050, considering the attribution of both nutrient and climate factors. We soft-coupled a process-based lake ecosystem model (PCLake+) with a watershed nutrient model (MARINA-Multi) to assess trends in algal blooms in terms of the Trophic State Index for chlorophyll-a (TSI-Chla). Globally between 2010 and 2050, we show a rising trend in algal blooms under fossil-fuelled development (TSI-Chla increase in 91 % of lakes) and a declining trend under sustainable development (TSI-Chla decrease in 63 % of lakes). These changes are significantly attributed to nutrients. While not always significant, climate change attributions point to being unfavourable for lakes in 2050, exacerbating lake water quality. Our study stresses prioritising responsible nutrient and climate management on policy agendas. This implies that the future of algal blooms in lakes is in our hands.

Original languageEnglish
Article number122533
JournalWater Research
Volume268
Issue numberPart A
Early online date11 Oct 2024
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 11 Oct 2024

Keywords

  • Algal blooms
  • Climate change
  • Eutrophication
  • Global assessment
  • Lake water quality
  • Scenario analysis

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