Abstract
Lakes are fundamental to society and nature, yet they are currently exposed to excessive nutrients and climate change, resulting in algal blooms. In the future, this may change, but how and where still needs more scientific attention. Here, we explore future trends in algal blooms in lakes globally for >3500 ‘representative lakes’ for the year 2050, considering the attribution of both nutrient and climate factors. We soft-coupled a process-based lake ecosystem model (PCLake+) with a watershed nutrient model (MARINA-Multi) to assess trends in algal blooms in terms of the Trophic State Index for chlorophyll-a (TSI-Chla). Globally between 2010 and 2050, we show a rising trend in algal blooms under fossil-fuelled development (TSI-Chla increase in 91 % of lakes) and a declining trend under sustainable development (TSI-Chla decrease in 63 % of lakes). These changes are significantly attributed to nutrients. While not always significant, climate change attributions point to being unfavourable for lakes in 2050, exacerbating lake water quality. Our study stresses prioritising responsible nutrient and climate management on policy agendas. This implies that the future of algal blooms in lakes is in our hands.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 122533 |
| Journal | Water Research |
| Volume | 268 |
| Issue number | Part A |
| Early online date | 11 Oct 2024 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 11 Oct 2024 |
Keywords
- Algal blooms
- Climate change
- Eutrophication
- Global assessment
- Lake water quality
- Scenario analysis