Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

F. Baart; M.A.J. Bakker; A. Van Dongeren; C. Den Heijer; S. Van Heteren; M.W.J. Smit; M. Van Koningsveld; A. Pool

doi:10.5194/nhess-11-2791-2011

Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

F. Baart, M.A.J. Bakker, A. Van Dongeren, C. Den Heijer, S. Van Heteren, M.W.J. Smit, M. Van Koningsveld, A. Pool

Research output: Contribution to journal/periodical › Article › Scientific › peer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

147 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2791-2801
Journal	Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Volume	11
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2791-2011
Publication status	Published - 2011

Access to Document

10.5194/nhess-11-2791-2011

PDF
(c) KNAW - Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen, 2011
Final published version, 33 MB

Cite this

@article{16ba71ebcd2f4858aff4c78277fa0212,

title = "Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates",

abstract = "For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.",

author = "F. Baart and M.A.J. Bakker and {Van Dongeren}, A. and {Den Heijer}, C. and {Van Heteren}, S. and M.W.J. Smit and {Van Koningsveld}, M. and A. Pool",

note = "Reporting year: 2011 Metis note: 5167; CEME; RE",

year = "2011",

doi = "10.5194/nhess-11-2791-2011",

language = "English",

volume = "11",

pages = "2791--2801",

journal = "Natural Hazards and Earth System Science",

issn = "1561-8633",

publisher = "European Geosciences Union",

number = "10",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

AU - Baart, F.

AU - Bakker, M.A.J.

AU - Van Dongeren, A.

AU - Den Heijer, C.

AU - Van Heteren, S.

AU - Smit, M.W.J.

AU - Van Koningsveld, M.

AU - Pool, A.

N1 - Reporting year: 2011 Metis note: 5167; CEME; RE

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.

AB - For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.

U2 - 10.5194/nhess-11-2791-2011

DO - 10.5194/nhess-11-2791-2011

M3 - Article

SN - 1561-8633

VL - 11

SP - 2791

EP - 2801

JO - Natural Hazards and Earth System Science

JF - Natural Hazards and Earth System Science

IS - 10

ER -

Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

Abstract

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this