Also published as IZA discussion paper; 5722.
Using administrative panel data on the entire population of new labour immigrants to
The Netherlands, we estimate the causal effects of labour dynamics on their return decisions.
Specifically, the roles of unemployment and re-employment spells on immigration
durations are examined. The endogeneity of labour market outcomes and the return
migration decision, if ignored, confounds the causal effect. This empirical challenge is
addressed using the “timing-of-events” method. We estimate the model separately for
distinct immigrant groups, and find that, overall, unemployment spells shorten immigration
durations, while re-employment spells delay returns for all but one group. The
magnitude of the causal effect differ across groups.
keywords: temporary migration; durations; timing of event method; labour market