A Longitudinal Study on Twitter-Based Forecasting of Five Dutch National Elections

Eric Sanders, A. van den Bosch

Onderzoeksoutput: Hoofdstuk in boek/boekdeelBijdrage aan conferentie proceedingsWetenschappelijkpeer review

Samenvatting

We report on an eight-year longitudinal study of predicting the outcome of elections based on party mentions in tweets. Five Dutch national elections for the parliament and senate between 2011 and 2019 were examined. Configurations with four parameters were tested. For three elections, reasonably accurate predictions can be obtained that are under twice the error of the classic polls, but only after post-hoc optimization. When the same optimal parameter configuration is used for all elections, the results worsen.
Originele taal-2Engels
TitelSocial Informatics
SubtitelSocInfo 2019
Plaats van productieUrbana-Champaign
UitgeverijSpringer
Pagina's128-142
Volume11864
ISBN van elektronische versie978-3-030-34971-4
ISBN van geprinte versie978-3-030-34970-7
DOI's
StatusGepubliceerd - 11 nov 2019

Publicatie series

NaamLecture Notes in Computer Science
UitgeverijSpringer
Volume11864

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  • Citeer dit

    Sanders, E., & van den Bosch, A. (2019). A Longitudinal Study on Twitter-Based Forecasting of Five Dutch National Elections. In Social Informatics: SocInfo 2019 (Vol. 11864, blz. 128-142). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 11864). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-34971-4_9