TY - JOUR
T1 - Heatwaves and cold spells and their effect on mortality
T2 - An analysis of micro-data for the netherlands in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries
AU - Ekamper, Peter
AU - Van Poppel, Frans
AU - Van Duin, Coen
AU - Mandemakers, Kees
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - To gain insight into the changing impact of cold and heat on mortality, we analyzed Dutch individual death records in relation to daily temperatures for the 1855-1950 period for four of the eleven Dutch provinces. By making use of negative binomial regression models we studied whether the effect of extreme heat and cold varied by province, age, sex and social class, and analyzed the changes in vulnerability to temperature fluctuations. Our study showed that between 1855 and 1950 total mortality underwent an immediate increase when temperature rose above the optimal value, the size of that effect being more or less the same in all four provinces. We observed increases in mortality related to temperature increases 1-2 days before the day of death, and strong delayed effects for lag days 7-14 and 15-30. The immediate and delayed effects of heat were strongest for infants. Immediate effects of cold were contrary to what could be expected. The immediate and delayed effects of heat were felt the strongest among unskilled workers. Short-term delayed effects of heat as well as longer-term delayed effects declined from 1900 and 1930 on. The vulnerability of unskilled workers and infants to heat declined after 1930.
AB - To gain insight into the changing impact of cold and heat on mortality, we analyzed Dutch individual death records in relation to daily temperatures for the 1855-1950 period for four of the eleven Dutch provinces. By making use of negative binomial regression models we studied whether the effect of extreme heat and cold varied by province, age, sex and social class, and analyzed the changes in vulnerability to temperature fluctuations. Our study showed that between 1855 and 1950 total mortality underwent an immediate increase when temperature rose above the optimal value, the size of that effect being more or less the same in all four provinces. We observed increases in mortality related to temperature increases 1-2 days before the day of death, and strong delayed effects for lag days 7-14 and 15-30. The immediate and delayed effects of heat were strongest for infants. Immediate effects of cold were contrary to what could be expected. The immediate and delayed effects of heat were felt the strongest among unskilled workers. Short-term delayed effects of heat as well as longer-term delayed effects declined from 1900 and 1930 on. The vulnerability of unskilled workers and infants to heat declined after 1930.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80053017709&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3917/adh.120.0055
DO - 10.3917/adh.120.0055
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:80053017709
SN - 0066-2062
VL - 120
SP - 55
EP - 104
JO - Annales de Demographie Historique
JF - Annales de Demographie Historique
IS - 2
ER -