Interdependent Hazards, Local Interactions, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants

TY - UNPB

T1 - Interdependent Hazards, Local Interactions, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants

AU - Bijwaard, G.E.

AU - Schluter, C.

PY - 2018/8

Y1 - 2018/8

N2 - Consider the duration of stay of migrants in a host country. We propose a statistical model of locally interdependent return hazards in order to examine whet- her interactions at the level of the neighbourhood are present and lead to social multipliers. To estimate this model we develop and study two complementary estimation strategies, demonstrate their good performance while standard non-spatial estimators are shown to be heavily biased. Using a unique large administrative panel dataset for the population of recent labour immigrants to the Netherlands, we quantify the local social multipliers in several factual and counterfactual experiments, and demonstrate that these are substantial.

AB - Consider the duration of stay of migrants in a host country. We propose a statistical model of locally interdependent return hazards in order to examine whet- her interactions at the level of the neighbourhood are present and lead to social multipliers. To estimate this model we develop and study two complementary estimation strategies, demonstrate their good performance while standard non-spatial estimators are shown to be heavily biased. Using a unique large administrative panel dataset for the population of recent labour immigrants to the Netherlands, we quantify the local social multipliers in several factual and counterfactual experiments, and demonstrate that these are substantial.

KW - interdependent hazards

KW - local interaction

KW - social multipliers

KW - return migration

M3 - Working paper/Discussion paper

T3 - Discussion Paper

BT - Interdependent Hazards, Local Interactions, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants

PB - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

ER -