Microsimulation of household and marital transitions leading to childlessness among Dutch women born in 1973-2002

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Cohort childlessness in Europe has been increasing for more than two decades, yet some countries seem to be going through a reversal of this trend. This article uses microsimulation to project trends in household and marital transitions leading to a first birth among the women born between 1973 and 2002 in the Netherlands. Childlessness is projected to decrease among the cohorts born between 1973 and 1988, but will increase again among those born between 1988 and 2002. The lower level of childlessness of the women born in 1988 in comparison to those born in 1973 is mainly due to swifter transitions from living alone to cohabiting and to a first birth, and from cohabiting to a first birth. Considering the women born in 2002, slower transitions out of the parental home and more transitions back to it, and fewer transitions to marriage induce a higher level of childlessness.
Originele taal-2Engels
Aantal pagina's27
StatusGepubliceerd - jul. 2019

Publicatie series

NaamWorking Paper
Nr.2019/02

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