Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

TY - JOUR

T1 - Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

AU - Klabunde, A.

AU - Zinn, S.

AU - Willekens, F.J.

AU - Leuchter, M.

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.

AB - We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.

KW - international migration

KW - life course modelling

KW - Theory of planned behaviour

KW - multistate modelling

KW - microsimulation

KW - Agent-Based Modelling

KW - SSCI

U2 - 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350281

DO - 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350281

M3 - Article

SN - 0032-4728

VL - 71

SP - S51-S67

JO - Population Studies: a journal of demography

JF - Population Studies: a journal of demography

IS - S1

ER -