Nonlinear stochastic effects of substitution - An evolutionary approach

E. Bruckner; W. Ebeling; M. A. Jiménez Montaño; A. Scharnhorst

doi:10.1007/bf01202370

Nonlinear stochastic effects of substitution - An evolutionary approach

E. Bruckner, W. Ebeling, M. A. Jiménez Montaño, A. Scharnhorst

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Samenvatting

Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well known research traditions on self-organisation models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature we show the existence of a specific niche effect, which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of a new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome.

Originele taal-2	Engels
Pagina's (van-tot)	1-30
Aantal pagina's	30
Tijdschrift	Journal of Evolutionary Economics
Volume	6
Nummer van het tijdschrift	1
DOI's	https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01202370
Status	Gepubliceerd - 1996

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10.1007/bf01202370

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AB - Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well known research traditions on self-organisation models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature we show the existence of a specific niche effect, which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of a new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome.

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