Numerical modeling of the central Black Sea ecosystem functioning during the eutrophication phase

M. Grégoire, C. Raick, K.E.R. Soetaert

    Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan wetenschappelijk tijdschrift/periodieke uitgaveArtikelWetenschappelijkpeer review

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    Abstract A one-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model has been developed to simulate the ecosystem of the central Black Sea at the end of the 1980s when eutrophication and invasion by gelatinous organisms seriously affected the stability and dynamics of the system. The physical model is the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and the biogeochemical model describes the foodweb from bacteria to gelatinous carnivores through 24 state variables including three groups of phytoplankton: diatoms, s The mathematical modeling of phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics, detritus and the microbial loop is based on the model developed by Van den Meersche et al. [Van den Meersche, K., Middelburg, J., Soetaert, K., van Rijswijk P.H.B., Heip, C., 2004. Carbon–nitrogen coupling and algal–bacterial interactions during an experimental bloom: Modeling a 13c tracer experiment. Limnology and Oceanography 49 (3), 862–878] and tested in the modeling of mesocosm experiments and of the Ligurian sea ecosystem The coupled model extends down to the sediments ( depth) and is forced at the air–sea interface by the 6 hourly ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF data. The model has been calibrated and validated using a large set of data available in the Black Sea TU Ocean Base. The biogeochemical model involves some hundred parameters which are first calibrated by hand using published values. Then, an identifiability analysis has been performed in order to determine a subset of identifiable parameters (i.e. ensemble In order to calibrate the particle dynamics and export, the chemical model was run off-line with the particle and microbial loop model in order to check its capacity of simulating anoxic waters. After a 104 year run, the model simulated profiles similar to observations but steady state was not reached suggesting that the Black Sea deep waters are not at steady state. The fully coupled model was then used to simulate the period 1988–1992 of the Black Sea ecosystem. The model solution exhibits a
    Originele taal-2Engels
    Pagina's (van-tot)286-333
    TijdschriftProgress in Oceanography
    Nummer van het tijdschrift3
    StatusGepubliceerd - 2008


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