Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

TY - JOUR

T1 - Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

AU - Reed, T.

AU - Grotan, V.

AU - Jenouvrier, S.

AU - Saether, B.E.

AU - Visser, M.E.

N1 - Reporting year: 2013 Metis note: 5426;Wag; AnE; Data archiving: data archived at MDA

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - road-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by climate change–induced phenological mismatch, using almost four decades of individual-level life-history data from a great tit population. In this population, warmer springs have generated a mismatch between the annual breeding time and the seasonal food peak, intensifying directional selection for earlier laying dates. Interannual variation in population mismatch has not, however, affected population growth. We demonstrated a mechanism contributing to this uncoupling, whereby fitness losses associated with mismatch are counteracted by fitness gains due to relaxed competition. These findings imply that natural populations may be able to tolerate considerable maladaptation driven by shifting climatic conditions without undergoing immediate declines.

AB - road-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by climate change–induced phenological mismatch, using almost four decades of individual-level life-history data from a great tit population. In this population, warmer springs have generated a mismatch between the annual breeding time and the seasonal food peak, intensifying directional selection for earlier laying dates. Interannual variation in population mismatch has not, however, affected population growth. We demonstrated a mechanism contributing to this uncoupling, whereby fitness losses associated with mismatch are counteracted by fitness gains due to relaxed competition. These findings imply that natural populations may be able to tolerate considerable maladaptation driven by shifting climatic conditions without undergoing immediate declines.

KW - international

U2 - 10.1126/science.1232870

DO - 10.1126/science.1232870

M3 - Article

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 340

SP - 488

EP - 491

JO - Science Magazine

JF - Science Magazine

IS - 6131

ER -