Process-based modeling for ecosystem service provisioning: Non-linear responses to restoration efforts in a quarry lake under climate change

TY - JOUR

T1 - Process-based modeling for ecosystem service provisioning

T2 - Non-linear responses to restoration efforts in a quarry lake under climate change

AU - Zhan, Qing

AU - de Senerpont Domis, Lisette N.

AU - Lürling, Miquel

AU - Marcé, Rafael

AU - Heuts, Tom S.

AU - Teurlincx, Sven

N1 - Data archiving: zenodo

PY - 2023/12/15

Y1 - 2023/12/15

N2 - Healthy freshwater ecosystems can provide vital ecosystem services (ESs), and this capacity may be hampered due to water quality deterioration and climate change. In the currently available ES modeling tools, ecosystem processes are either absent or oversimplified, hindering the evaluation of impacts of restoration measures on ES provisioning. In this study, we propose an ES modeling tool that integrates lake physics, ecology and service provisioning into a holistic modeling framework. We applied this model to a Dutch quarry lake, to evaluate how nine ESs respond to technological-based (phosphorus (P) reduction) and nature-based measures (wetland restoration). As climate change might be affecting the future effectiveness of restoration efforts, we also studied the climate change impacts on the outcome of restoration measures and provisioning of ESs, using climate scenarios for the Netherlands in 2050. Our results indicate that both phosphorus reduction and wetland restoration mitigated eutrophication symptoms, resulting in increased oxygen concentrations and water transparency, and decreased phytoplankton biomass. Delivery of most ESs was improved, including swimming, P retention, and macrophyte habitat, whereas the ES provisioning that required a more productive system was impaired (sport fishing and bird watching). However, our modeling results suggested hampered effectiveness of restoration measures upon exposure to future climate conditions, which may require intensification of restoration efforts in the future to meet restoration targets. Importantly, ESs provisioning showed non-linear responses to increasing intensity of restoration measures, indicating that effectiveness of restoration measures does not necessarily increase proportionally. In conclusion, the ecosystem service modeling framework proposed in this study, provides a holistic evaluation of lake restoration measures on ecosystem services provisioning, and can contribute to development of climate-robust management strategies.

AB - Healthy freshwater ecosystems can provide vital ecosystem services (ESs), and this capacity may be hampered due to water quality deterioration and climate change. In the currently available ES modeling tools, ecosystem processes are either absent or oversimplified, hindering the evaluation of impacts of restoration measures on ES provisioning. In this study, we propose an ES modeling tool that integrates lake physics, ecology and service provisioning into a holistic modeling framework. We applied this model to a Dutch quarry lake, to evaluate how nine ESs respond to technological-based (phosphorus (P) reduction) and nature-based measures (wetland restoration). As climate change might be affecting the future effectiveness of restoration efforts, we also studied the climate change impacts on the outcome of restoration measures and provisioning of ESs, using climate scenarios for the Netherlands in 2050. Our results indicate that both phosphorus reduction and wetland restoration mitigated eutrophication symptoms, resulting in increased oxygen concentrations and water transparency, and decreased phytoplankton biomass. Delivery of most ESs was improved, including swimming, P retention, and macrophyte habitat, whereas the ES provisioning that required a more productive system was impaired (sport fishing and bird watching). However, our modeling results suggested hampered effectiveness of restoration measures upon exposure to future climate conditions, which may require intensification of restoration efforts in the future to meet restoration targets. Importantly, ESs provisioning showed non-linear responses to increasing intensity of restoration measures, indicating that effectiveness of restoration measures does not necessarily increase proportionally. In conclusion, the ecosystem service modeling framework proposed in this study, provides a holistic evaluation of lake restoration measures on ecosystem services provisioning, and can contribute to development of climate-robust management strategies.

KW - Climate change impacts

KW - Ecological modeling

KW - Ecosystem service modeling

KW - Eutrophication control

KW - Freshwater ecosystem restoration

KW - Wetland restoration

U2 - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119163

DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119163

M3 - Article

C2 - 37827081

AN - SCOPUS:85173420560

SN - 0301-4797

VL - 348

JO - Journal of Environmental Management

JF - Journal of Environmental Management

M1 - 119163

ER -