TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatial risk analysis for the introduction and circulation of six arboviruses in the Netherlands
AU - Esser, Helen Joan
AU - Liefting, Yorick
AU - Ibáñez-Justicia, Adolfo
AU - Van Der Jeugd, Henk
AU - Van Turnhout, Chris A.M.
AU - Stroo, Arjan
AU - Reusken, Chantal B.E.M.
AU - Koopmans, Marion P.G.
AU - De Boer, Willem Fred
N1 - 7295, VT; Data archiving: no NIOO data
PY - 2020/9/10
Y1 - 2020/9/10
N2 - Background: Arboviruses are a growing public health concern in Europe, with both endemic and exotic arboviruses expected to spread further into novel areas in the next decades. Predicting where future outbreaks will occur is a major challenge, particularly for regions where these arboviruses are not endemic. Spatial modelling of ecological risk factors for arbovirus circulation can help identify areas of potential emergence. Moreover, combining hazard maps of different arboviruses may facilitate a cost-efficient, targeted multiplex-surveillance strategy in areas where virus transmission is most likely. Here, we developed predictive hazard maps for the introduction and/or establishment of six arboviruses that were previously prioritized for the Netherlands: West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, louping-ill virus and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus. Methods: Our spatial model included ecological risk factors that were identified as relevant for these arboviruses by an earlier systematic review, including abiotic conditions, vector abundance, and host availability. We used geographic information system (GIS)-based tools and geostatistical analyses to model spatially continuous datasets on these risk factors to identify regions in the Netherlands with suitable ecological conditions for arbovirus introduction and establishment. Results: The resulting hazard maps show that there is spatial clustering of areas with either a relatively low or relatively high environmental suitability for arbovirus circulation. Moreover, there was some overlap in high-hazard areas for virus introduction and/or establishment, particularly in the southern part of the country. Conclusions: The similarities in environmental suitability for some of the arboviruses provide opportunities for targeted sampling of vectors and/or sentinel hosts in these potential hotspots of emergence, thereby increasing the efficient use of limited resources for surveillance.[Figure not available: See fulltext.].
AB - Background: Arboviruses are a growing public health concern in Europe, with both endemic and exotic arboviruses expected to spread further into novel areas in the next decades. Predicting where future outbreaks will occur is a major challenge, particularly for regions where these arboviruses are not endemic. Spatial modelling of ecological risk factors for arbovirus circulation can help identify areas of potential emergence. Moreover, combining hazard maps of different arboviruses may facilitate a cost-efficient, targeted multiplex-surveillance strategy in areas where virus transmission is most likely. Here, we developed predictive hazard maps for the introduction and/or establishment of six arboviruses that were previously prioritized for the Netherlands: West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, louping-ill virus and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus. Methods: Our spatial model included ecological risk factors that were identified as relevant for these arboviruses by an earlier systematic review, including abiotic conditions, vector abundance, and host availability. We used geographic information system (GIS)-based tools and geostatistical analyses to model spatially continuous datasets on these risk factors to identify regions in the Netherlands with suitable ecological conditions for arbovirus introduction and establishment. Results: The resulting hazard maps show that there is spatial clustering of areas with either a relatively low or relatively high environmental suitability for arbovirus circulation. Moreover, there was some overlap in high-hazard areas for virus introduction and/or establishment, particularly in the southern part of the country. Conclusions: The similarities in environmental suitability for some of the arboviruses provide opportunities for targeted sampling of vectors and/or sentinel hosts in these potential hotspots of emergence, thereby increasing the efficient use of limited resources for surveillance.[Figure not available: See fulltext.].
KW - Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus
KW - Geographic Information System
KW - Japanese encephalitis virus
KW - Louping-ill virus
KW - Rift Valley fever virus
KW - Risk mapping
KW - Tick-borne encephalitis virus
KW - Vector-borne diseases
KW - West Nile virus
KW - national
KW - Plan_S-Compliant-OA
U2 - 10.1186/s13071-020-04339-0
DO - 10.1186/s13071-020-04339-0
M3 - Article
C2 - 32912330
AN - SCOPUS:85090821244
SN - 1756-3305
VL - 13
JO - Parasites and Vectors
JF - Parasites and Vectors
IS - 1
M1 - 464
ER -