Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges

Meike T. Wortel; Deepa Agashe; Susan F. Bailey; Claudia Bank; Karen Bisschop; Thomas Blankers; Johannes Cairns; Enrico Sandro Colizzi; Davide Cusseddu; Michael M. Desai; Bram van Dijk; Martijn Egas; Jacintha Ellers; Astrid T. Groot; David G. Heckel; Marcelle L. Johnson; Ken Kraaijeveld; Joachim Krug; Liedewij Laan; Michael Lässig; Peter A. Lind; Jeroen Meijer; Luke M. Noble; Samir Okasha; Paul B. Rainey; Daniel E. Rozen; Shraddha Shitut; Sander J. Tans; Olivier Tenaillon; Henrique Teotónio; J. Arjan G.M. de Visser; Marcel E. Visser; Renske M.A. Vroomans; Gijsbert D.A. Werner; Bregje Wertheim; Pleuni S. Pennings

doi:10.1111/eva.13513

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges

Meike T. Wortel^*, Deepa Agashe, Susan F. Bailey, Claudia Bank, Karen Bisschop, Thomas Blankers, Johannes Cairns, Enrico Sandro Colizzi, Davide Cusseddu, Michael M. Desai, Bram van Dijk, Martijn Egas, Jacintha Ellers, Astrid T. Groot, David G. Heckel, Marcelle L. Johnson, Ken Kraaijeveld, Joachim Krug, Liedewij Laan, Michael LässigPeter A. Lind, Jeroen Meijer, Luke M. Noble, Samir Okasha, Paul B. Rainey, Daniel E. Rozen, Shraddha Shitut, Sander J. Tans, Olivier Tenaillon, Henrique Teotónio, J. Arjan G.M. de Visser, Marcel E. Visser, Renske M.A. Vroomans, Gijsbert D.A. Werner, Bregje Wertheim, Pleuni S. Pennings

^*Bijbehorende auteur voor dit werk

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Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Originele taal-2	Engels
Pagina's (van-tot)	3-21
Aantal pagina's	19
Tijdschrift	Evolutionary Applications
Volume	16
Nummer van het tijdschrift	1
DOI's	https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.13513
Status	Gepubliceerd - jan. 2023

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10.1111/eva.13513Licentie: CC BY

Wortel et al 2023Final published version, 3,05 MBLicentie: CC BY

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Wortel, M. T., Agashe, D., Bailey, S. F., Bank, C., Bisschop, K., Blankers, T., Cairns, J., Colizzi, E. S., Cusseddu, D., Desai, M. M., van Dijk, B., Egas, M., Ellers, J., Groot, A. T., Heckel, D. G., Johnson, M. L., Kraaijeveld, K., Krug, J., Laan, L., ... Pennings, P. S. (2023). Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges. Evolutionary Applications, 16(1), 3-21. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.13513

@article{999c431e533e4fefadbb21314067e63a,

title = "Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges",

abstract = "Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.",

keywords = "disease modelling, evolution, evolutionary control, models, population genetics, predictability, prediction",

author = "Wortel, {Meike T.} and Deepa Agashe and Bailey, {Susan F.} and Claudia Bank and Karen Bisschop and Thomas Blankers and Johannes Cairns and Colizzi, {Enrico Sandro} and Davide Cusseddu and Desai, {Michael M.} and {van Dijk}, Bram and Martijn Egas and Jacintha Ellers and Groot, {Astrid T.} and Heckel, {David G.} and Johnson, {Marcelle L.} and Ken Kraaijeveld and Joachim Krug and Liedewij Laan and Michael L{\"a}ssig and Lind, {Peter A.} and Jeroen Meijer and Noble, {Luke M.} and Samir Okasha and Rainey, {Paul B.} and Rozen, {Daniel E.} and Shraddha Shitut and Tans, {Sander J.} and Olivier Tenaillon and Henrique Teot{\'o}nio and {de Visser}, {J. Arjan G.M.} and Visser, {Marcel E.} and Vroomans, {Renske M.A.} and Werner, {Gijsbert D.A.} and Bregje Wertheim and Pennings, {Pleuni S.}",

note = "Data archiving: no data",

year = "2023",

month = jan,

doi = "10.1111/eva.13513",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

pages = "3--21",

journal = "Evolutionary Applications",

issn = "1752-4563",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "1",

}

Wortel, MT, Agashe, D, Bailey, SF, Bank, C, Bisschop, K, Blankers, T, Cairns, J, Colizzi, ES, Cusseddu, D, Desai, MM, van Dijk, B, Egas, M, Ellers, J, Groot, AT, Heckel, DG, Johnson, ML, Kraaijeveld, K, Krug, J, Laan, L, Lässig, M, Lind, PA, Meijer, J, Noble, LM, Okasha, S, Rainey, PB, Rozen, DE, Shitut, S, Tans, SJ, Tenaillon, O, Teotónio, H, de Visser, JAGM, Visser, ME, Vroomans, RMA, Werner, GDA, Wertheim, B & Pennings, PS 2023, 'Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges', Evolutionary Applications, vol. 16, nr. 1, blz. 3-21. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.13513

TY - JOUR

T1 - Towards evolutionary predictions

T2 - Current promises and challenges

AU - Wortel, Meike T.

AU - Agashe, Deepa

AU - Bailey, Susan F.

AU - Bank, Claudia

AU - Bisschop, Karen

AU - Blankers, Thomas

AU - Cairns, Johannes

AU - Colizzi, Enrico Sandro

AU - Cusseddu, Davide

AU - Desai, Michael M.

AU - van Dijk, Bram

AU - Egas, Martijn

AU - Ellers, Jacintha

AU - Groot, Astrid T.

AU - Heckel, David G.

AU - Johnson, Marcelle L.

AU - Kraaijeveld, Ken

AU - Krug, Joachim

AU - Laan, Liedewij

AU - Lässig, Michael

AU - Lind, Peter A.

AU - Meijer, Jeroen

AU - Noble, Luke M.

AU - Okasha, Samir

AU - Rainey, Paul B.

AU - Rozen, Daniel E.

AU - Shitut, Shraddha

AU - Tans, Sander J.

AU - Tenaillon, Olivier

AU - Teotónio, Henrique

AU - de Visser, J. Arjan G.M.

AU - Visser, Marcel E.

AU - Vroomans, Renske M.A.

AU - Werner, Gijsbert D.A.

AU - Wertheim, Bregje

AU - Pennings, Pleuni S.

N1 - Data archiving: no data

PY - 2023/1

Y1 - 2023/1

N2 - Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

AB - Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

KW - disease modelling

KW - evolution

KW - evolutionary control

KW - models

KW - population genetics

KW - predictability

KW - prediction

U2 - 10.1111/eva.13513

DO - 10.1111/eva.13513

M3 - Book/Film/Article review

AN - SCOPUS:85144025933

SN - 1752-4563

VL - 16

SP - 3

EP - 21

JO - Evolutionary Applications

JF - Evolutionary Applications

IS - 1

ER -

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges

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