When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world

TY - JOUR

T1 - When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world

AU - van Dalen, Harry

AU - Henkens, K.

PY - 2021/7/1

Y1 - 2021/7/1

N2 - When does fertility in a country become so low or so high that a government needs to intervene? This paper sheds light on this population policy question, based on a worldwide survey among demographers. We examine how professionals’ policy preferences regarding fertility levels are affected by their views on the impacts of population growth/decline and by fertility in their country of residence. The median respondent suggests intervention once fertility goes below 1.4 children or above 3.0. Three results stand out: first, demographers who are concerned about the carrying capacity of the earth are more willing to intervene than those who are less concerned. Second, the context of decision-making matters: experts living in high-fertility countries are more set on intervention than those living in low-fertility countries, but their threshold fertility level is also higher. Third, political orientation matters: right-leaning demographers are more set on government intervention than left-leaning demographers.

AB - When does fertility in a country become so low or so high that a government needs to intervene? This paper sheds light on this population policy question, based on a worldwide survey among demographers. We examine how professionals’ policy preferences regarding fertility levels are affected by their views on the impacts of population growth/decline and by fertility in their country of residence. The median respondent suggests intervention once fertility goes below 1.4 children or above 3.0. Three results stand out: first, demographers who are concerned about the carrying capacity of the earth are more willing to intervene than those who are less concerned. Second, the context of decision-making matters: experts living in high-fertility countries are more set on intervention than those living in low-fertility countries, but their threshold fertility level is also higher. Third, political orientation matters: right-leaning demographers are more set on government intervention than left-leaning demographers.

KW - fertility

KW - demographers

KW - replacement rate

KW - population decline

KW - family planning

KW - population policy

U2 - 10.1080/00324728.2020.1784986

DO - 10.1080/00324728.2020.1784986

M3 - Article

SN - 0082-805X

VL - 75

SP - 289

EP - 303

JO - Population Studies

JF - Population Studies

IS - 2

ER -